Gasoline Prices of 100 UAH Are on the Horizon Again: Kuyun Explained the Market Situation
2 September 14:48
Fuel prices in Ukraine may rise sharply again due to the escalating tensions surrounding Iran and rising prices for petroleum products on the European market.
This forecast was announced by Serhiy Kuyun, director of the A-95 Consulting Group, according to "Komersant Ukrainian"
According to him, diesel fuel prices in London have already exceeded $1,400 per metric ton. Gasoline prices are also rising rapidly. Current prices have approached April’s highs and surpassed July’s levels.
The main reason for the latest spike is yet another escalation in the Middle East.
How much will gasoline and diesel cost?
According to Kuyun’s estimate, the current rise in European prices, when converted to the Ukrainian retail market, corresponds to a potential price increase for gasoline and diesel of 4.5–5 UAH per liter.
The average prices cited by the expert are currently:
- gasoline — about 80 UAH per liter;
- diesel fuel — about 91 UAH per liter.
If the projected price increase materializes in full, average prices could rise to the following levels:
| Fuel Type | Current average price | Possible price |
|---|---|---|
| Gasoline | 80 UAH/L | 84.5–85 UAH/L |
| Diesel fuel | 91 UAH/liter | 95.5–96 UAH/L |
At some gas stations, especially in premium chains, prices may be higher than the market average.
The first changes have already begun: according to Kuyun, over the past two days, some chains have raised prices by 1 UAH per liter.
“So, we’re expecting domestic prices to rise. Currently, this increase translates to an additional 4.5–5.0 UAH per liter of gasoline and diesel (their average prices are currently 80 and 91 UAH/liter, respectively). The first steps have been taken—yesterday and today, some chains all raised their prices by 1 hryvnia per liter,” he wrote.
When fuel prices may rise
The expected increase could occur within the next two weeks.
The Ukrainian market reacts to changes in European prices with a certain delay. First, imported fuel becomes more expensive in the wholesale segment, after which the new purchase price gradually appears on gas station price boards.
However, a 4.5–5 UAH increase is not guaranteed. Kuyun emphasized that such a scenario is possible if prices remain at their current high levels.
If tensions surrounding Iran ease and oil and petroleum products become cheaper, Ukrainian chains may raise prices only partially or postpone further price adjustments.
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Why the Escalation in Iran Affects Ukraine
Ukraine is heavily dependent on imported gasoline and diesel fuel. Therefore, domestic market prices are influenced by the cost of crude oil, the prices of refined petroleum products in Europe, and logistical risks.
The escalation surrounding Iran poses a threat to energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz—one of the most important routes for global oil trade.
Due to fears of supply disruptions, Brent crude rose by more than $4 on September 1, reaching $94.65 per barrel. The following day, prices approached $97, according to Reuters.
Diesel prices are rising particularly rapidly. They are further driven by problems at oil refineries and limited fuel supply on the international market.
Will Gasoline Reach 100 Hryvnias?
Serhiy Kuyun does not foresee an immediate rise in the average price of gasoline to 100 hryvnias per liter.
According to him, the widely discussed scenario of gasoline reaching 100 hryvnia has not yet materialized, although this threshold is once again coming into view due to the latest price hikes on the global market.
Even after the projected increase, the average price of gasoline may be around 85 hryvnias per liter, and diesel—up to 96 hryvnias. At the same time, certain premium fuel brands or offerings from the most expensive retail chains may approach this psychological threshold sooner.
Will There Be a Fuel Shortage?
Despite the possible price increase, there are currently no issues with the physical availability of gasoline and diesel.
According to Kuyun, there are sufficient reserves both in Ukraine and in Europe. Therefore, the main risk for consumers remains not a shortage, but rising prices.
This means that drivers should not panic and stock up on fuel. Panic buying could lead to local lines and temporary shortages of certain fuel brands at specific gas stations, although there is no systemic shortage in the market.
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