Failure of the Russian Offensive and New Risks: Will Russia be able to Restore Offensive Capabilities
22 October 14:44
Ukraine and Russia are unlikely to achieve a breakthrough on the frontline in the next six months, according to analysts at The New York Times.
The war in Ukraine remains dynamic and potentially unpredictable, but the current situation on the front line shows relative stability. This was stated by military expert Franz-Stephan Gadi.
“Currently, neither Russia has sufficient operational capabilities for a large-scale breakthrough, nor Ukraine has the necessary human resources,” the analyst said.
What may change on the battlefield in the near future – read in the article
Pavlo Lakiychuk, military expert and head of security programs at the Center for Global Studies “Strategy XXI”, in an exclusive commentary for
Russian strategy: betting on a breakthrough
According to the expert, Russia’s strategic offensive operation always involves breaking through the first line of defense and entering the operational space.
“The task and intention of a Russian strategic offensive is a breakthrough. The first is to break the defense, the second is to bring reserves into the breakthrough, go deep into the defense, and enter the operational space to realize strategic goals,” explained Lakiychuk.
According to the expert, Russia is currently failing to implement this plan, not because of its own mistakes, but because of Ukraine’s effective defense:
“There is no breakthrough. There are certain leaks, “tongues” that we see on the maps, but these are only tactical successes. They do not allow us to break through the defense line as a whole.“
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However, Lakiychuk admits that despite the lack of a breakthrough at the moment, the threat remains real.
“To be honest, a breakthrough is possible. This is the biggest danger. Because if the enemy does break through the defense, the flanks begin to crumble, the breakthrough zone expands. If they have reserves, they may march to Mariupol, Kherson or even Dnipro,” the expert warns.
Task #1 – to prevent a breakthrough
Holding the line is the main goal of the Ukrainian command:
“This is the essence of the first defense operation. The number one task is to prevent the enemy from breaking through our line. And the commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, and all our military commanders are working on this every day,” emphasizes Lakiychuk.
Task #2 – depletion of the enemy
The second strategic task is to deplete the enemy, that is, to destroy the resources that Russia could use in the event of a breakthrough:
“The enemy must be exhausted before it can use its reserves. If these reserves are “ground up” in the battles, the breakthrough will be meaningless – there will be no one and nothing to advance with.“
According to the expert, the failure of the Russian spring-summer campaign is already evident even at the level of statements by the Russian General Staff.
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“In September, Russian television showed Gerasimov’s speech, where he spoke about continuing the offensive. But in fact, it was an admission of failure,” notes Lakiychuk.
He adds that the Russian offensive was clearly planned in terms of directions, resources and time. But over time, the scheme failed:
“Six months have passed. The second echelons are being wiped out, the first echelons are not breaking through the defense, they are being wiped out near Avdiivka, Bakhmut, Pokrovsk, and Turetske. The Russians are throwing in new forces, resources, fuel, and ammunition. And even if there is a possibility of a breakthrough, there is simply nothing to continue the offensive.”
Autumn offensive: re-planning in the Kremlin
According to Mr. Lakiychuk, the Russian command is already preparing a new phase of hostilities:
“Gerasimov is already being told to prepare an autumn offensive. They are re-planning resources, changing the timing, determining new directions of attacks.”
But the success of this operation will again depend on Ukrainian defense.
“If we hold them back again, if the resources that should be used for the breakthrough are ground up in the fighting, the result will be the same. And then the New York Times can honestly say: yes, we have relied on the Armed Forces and we were right,” the expert concludes.
Thus, the current situation at the front is characterized by relative stability, but this stability is not synonymous with security. The absence of a large-scale breakthrough indicates that neither side has been able to accumulate and effectively use the resources necessary for a breakthrough: Russia – due to the depletion of the first and second echelons and incorrect timing of operations, Ukraine – due to limited human resources.
Therefore, the key task of the Ukrainian command is to combine the two elements – reliable defense of the contact line and mobilization of opportunities for gradual depletion of the enemy.
In this paradigm, even small tactical successes of the enemy do not turn into a strategic breakthrough if Ukrainian forces are able to prevent the expansion of the breakthrough zone and paralyzation of the flanks.
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