An attempt to halt attacks on the energy sector: why the idea of a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia has stalled
22 January 21:28
Ukraine and the United States are discussing a possible proposal to Russia regarding a limited energy ceasefire. The proposal involves halting attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in exchange for Ukraine ceasing strikes on Russian oil depots and tankers belonging to Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet.”
The Financial Times reports this, citing its own sources, noting that the prospects for such an agreement currently appear slim, according to "Komersant Ukrainian".
What format of negotiations is being discussed
According to a senior U.S. official, a trilateral meeting involving Ukraine, the U.S., and Russia could take place on January 23–24 in Abu Dhabi. At the same time, the Office of the President of Ukraine emphasizes that the meeting has not yet been definitively confirmed—Kyiv and Washington are awaiting Moscow’s response.
The format of the talks, which, according to the Russian side, will be proposed by Vladimir Putin, resembles the scheme of the November consultations in Abu Dhabi: at that time, Ukrainian and Russian representatives spoke with American officials separately, without direct contact between themselves.
The U.S. and Ukraine discussed a limited ceasefire option, which would entail:
- on Russia’s part—a cessation of strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure;
- on Ukraine’s part—a refusal to attack Russian oil refineries and “shadow fleet” tankers.
However, as the Financial Times notes, negotiations on this idea are not at an advanced stage.
Why Moscow Might Reject It
One of the newspaper’s sources indicates that Vladimir Putin is unlikely to agree to such a deal, as the Kremlin views strikes on Ukraine’s energy sector as an important lever of pressure on Kyiv. Massive attacks on Ukraine’s power grid remain one of the key tools of Russia’s military strategy.
Kyiv is also skeptical about an energy truce. A senior Ukrainian official told the Financial Times that Ukraine is also hesitant, as its program of using long-range strike drones has proven effective—particularly in striking Russian oil and gas facilities and “shadow fleet” vessels.
These attacks are seen as one of the few tools for exerting direct economic pressure on Russia.
Earlier , President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that trilateral talks involving Ukraine, the U.S., and Russia are planned in the near future in the United Arab Emirates .
