3 months of preparation: how the Kremlin planned an “unprecedented provocation” in Poland
10 September 2025 14:05
Moscow has been planning a drone attack on Poland since at least the beginning of July, installing communication equipment on its drones with Polish mobile operators. Defense Express wrote about this, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
The publication writes that the night attack by Russian long-range drones on Polish territory on September 10, which the Polish authorities described as an “unprecedented violation of airspace” and a “large-scale provocation,” was in fact just another step in the Kremlin’s long-term strategy to escalate tensions.
An analysis of the wreckage of Russian drones shot down on Ukrainian territory showed that preparations for such attacks had begun much earlier. As early as early July 2025, Ukrainian experts found 4G modems equipped with SIM cards of Polish mobile operators in the remains of Russian unmanned aerial vehicles.
The intelligence purpose of Russian provocations
Polish journalist Marek Budzysz disclosed the discovery on July 10, citing a report he had received on July 2. The document contained detailed information about the locations of the downing of Russian drones and the means of communication found on them.
In addition to Polish SIM cards, a card of a Lithuanian mobile operator was also found in one of the drones. The authors of the report concluded that this indicates that Russia is preparing to test drone flight routes over the territory of both countries and to test the connection to their mobile networks.
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Partners’ warning
The report, the authorship of which remains unknown, but which allegedly comes from high authorities, explicitly stated:
“We consider it necessary to inform our partners in Poland and Lithuania about the discovery of SIM cards of Polish and Lithuanian providers in Russian long-range strike drones.”
This information was indeed passed on to the Polish side, as a week after the report was drafted, a Polish journalist got hold of it. However, this data did not cause a significant resonance in Poland, despite the fact that Russian drones began to regularly violate Polish airspace during the summer.
The situation, however, escalated on August 20, when one of the Russian drones exploded on the ground near the village of Osiny in Lublin Voivodeship, just 40 kilometers from the air base where the NATO air patrol is based.
Technical purpose of mobile communications
The installation of mobile Internet on Russian drones serves several purposes. First, it allows for the transmission of information directly from the UAV and the adjustment of its flight path during the mission.
Depending on the additional equipment installed on the drones, Russian forces can receive critical intelligence information about the operation of air defense systems and enemy electronic warfare. In addition, it is possible to transmit visual data from drone cameras in real time.
Russia has been actively using similar technologies in the war against Ukraine for a long time, so it was only a matter of time before they were used against Polish territory.
Intelligence targets of the attack
It is not yet known whether the Russian drones that attacked Poland on the night of September 10 were equipped with such communication and reconnaissance equipment. However, the assumption that one of the main objectives of this attack was to reconnoiter Poland’s air defense system seems quite reasonable.
This assumption is especially important given the fact that on September 12, joint Russian-Belarusian military exercises codenamed “West-2025” are to begin in Belarus.
Thus, the attack on Poland can be seen as part of Moscow’s broader strategy to test NATO’s reaction and gather intelligence on the eve of large-scale military maneuvers in the region.
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