5 km to the “cauldron” for Russians in Kursk region: what opportunities will this environment open for Ukraine
20 August 2024 15:57
ЕКСКЛЮЗИВ
If the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Kursk region take 3,000 Russian soldiers into the cauldron, Ukraine will have a chance to return almost all Ukrainians from captivity. This was reported exclusively for "Komersant Ukrainian" by Oleksandr Musienko, Head of the Centre for Military and Legal Studies.
Ukraine is close to closing the “cauldron” on the Seim River, with up to three thousand Russian soldiers remaining inside, writes BILD analyst Julian Röpke.
“Since 16 August, Ukrainian troops have been blowing up bridges across the Seim River in the north of the Glushkovsky district of Kursk region. This could cut off the Russian Armed Forces group, as the area is surrounded by Ukrainian territory from the west and south. In response, Russia will organise pontoon crossings and an air bridge, as well as defend the remaining passage in the east. The day before, the Ukrainian Armed Forces seized the villages of Snagost and Apanasivka. They are now 5 km away from the Seim River and the closure of the boiler,” Julian Röpke said.
The analyst writes that the Russians now have a simple choice: either to fight and defend this territory or to retreat. Both options are fatal for them.
Oleksandr Musienko, head of the Centre for Military and Legal Studies, notes that trapping the Russians in the cauldron could be a significant military victory for Ukraine and a replenishment of the exchange fund.
“The trend of conscripts being captured is good, because Russia changes them faster. This is a sensitive category of servicemen for Putin, who, of course, is afraid of an uprising by the soldiers’ mothers’ committees. The Kremlin is trying to suppress these sentiments, and with this, the chances of our citizens returning from captivity are increasing,” believes Oleksandr Musienko
However, active hostilities continue, the enemy’s resistance has intensified, and there are attempts to break through, Musiyenko adds.
Russia is still trying to rescue the military who may be trapped in the “cauldron”, a desperate struggle is underway.
According to the head of the Centre for Military Legal Studies, it would be beneficial for Ukraine if Russia massively deployed conscripts to Kursk region, which would lead to destabilisation in the country, but so far there has been no massive phenomenon.
“The quality of the troops in Kursk is currently different. Conscripts make up a third of the total number of Russian military personnel. There is a movement, some units that are more combat-ready are being redeployed. If there are one thousand conscripts out of the three thousand who could end up in the cauldron, it will be good. There is a high probability that we can bring back almost everyone who is there from captivity,” the expert said.
However, we should not expect Putin to make concessions immediately and end the war over a cauldron. Musienko is confident that the likely encirclement of the Russians in Kursk will give us a number of other advantages.
“We will conduct an information campaign, demonstrate the success of the Ukrainian army, raise our morale, and demoralise the enemy. And to show that even though Russia is at war, it is losing its territories and forces, which are surrounded and cannot be saved,” said Musienko
When the Ukrainians close the “cauldron” in the Kursk region, we will be officially informed about it, Musienko is sure. He says that this is a significant victory in the military sense, which should be used and talked about.
Author: Anastasia Fedor
