50 days: Trump and Putin launch a synchronized countdown that will change the world
15 July 14:46
Trump has given the Kremlin an ultimatum – 50 days to reach a deal. Putin gave him 60 days to escalate. In the midst of war and global instability, new deadlines have emerged on the geopolitical chessboard that coincide too closely to be ignored. What does Trump’s ultimatum to Moscow really mean? And isn’t Putin’s “offensive on the borders” part of a bigger deal behind closed doors?
US President Donald Trump has said he is “very unhappy” with Russia’s actions and is ready to take tough economic measures if no agreement is reached on the war in Ukraine. In his speech, he gave Moscow 50 days to compromise, threatening secondary 100 percent tariffs against Russia’s trading partners.
“If we don’t reach a deal in 50 days, we will impose secondary duties. It’s very simple. They will be at the level of 100%. I hope we don’t have to do that,” Trump said
The US President emphasized that he had been “close to a deal” with Russia four times, but it never materialized.
At the same time, according to Axios, Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a telephone conversation with Trump on July 3, announced his intention to intensify the offensive in eastern Ukraine within 60 days in order to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Publicly, the presidents disagree: Trump is disappointed, Putin is determined. But behind the scenes, it seems, a complicated and not fully understood game is being played.
Is it just another exchange of threats or a behind-the-scenes attempt to agree on a new configuration of forces in the region? There are no answers yet, but the deadlines have been set. And they are very specific.
Trump gave Moscow 50 more days to bargain
Vitaliy Portnikov believes that US President Donald Trump in his speech actually gave Moscow an ultimatum – 50 days to compromise. According to Portnikov, this month and a half is nothing more than a “bargaining platform.”
“It’s hard to understand why Trump is talking about 50 days, but it means that he is still in a bargaining mode with Russia. You can still make a deal with me, knowing what the consequences of not making a deal will be,” Portnikov explains.
According to the journalist and observer, the Kremlin may perceive this period as a window of opportunity to seize new territories, reach the administrative borders of the seized regions of Ukraine and then stop, pretending to be “peacekeepers.”
“Of course, we can say that Trump is giving Putin the opportunity to seize as much as Putin would like to seize in these 50 days… But we understand that these are very conditional things,” Portnikov says.
He emphasizes that the Russian army is unlikely to be able to implement these plans, especially in the face of new supplies of Western weapons, including long-range missiles that can “destroy a large number of Russian military airfields, factories, and military units.”
“The Russians could have a disaster on their own criminal soil. And this can also slow down any pace of their offensive,” Vitaliy Portnikov emphasizes.
At the same time, he believes that not only military but also economic pressure is key. Trump, although he expresses doubts about tough sanctions, hints that he can act decisively without the approval of Congress. Trump can impose 100 percent tariffs on Russia’s allies without Congressional approval. This, according to Portnikov, is a fundamentally new step – punishing not only Russia but also its partners: China, India, and Brazil.
50 days before the big deal? What Trump and Putin are up to – and why it’s dangerous for Ukraine
In the midst of global geopolitical games and against the backdrop of escalating military rhetoric on both sides of the Atlantic, the expert community is trying to unravel what is behind the simultaneous launch of Donald Trump’s 50-day “timer” on sanctions and Vladimir Putin’s 60-day “escalation plan.” In a commentary for
“Yesterday I read a lot of conspiracies on the Internet. People are linking dates, numbers, even the devil’s number is mentioned. This suggests only one thing: we really want something to finally change – either to end the war or to get real resources for defense,” explains Yahodzinsky.
The professor points to the fact that even unofficial conversations between Trump and Putin are immediately followed by military action. When Trump tried to take a risk and slow down the supply of weapons to Ukraine, missiles flew within half an hour of his conversation with Putin. This looks like a signal: every pause in the West is instantly used by Moscow, notes Yahodzinsky.
According to the doctor of philosophy, the current signals from Washington are an ultimatum with a built-in threat. The sanctions are no longer “500%” as previously predicted, but quite real “100%” – and not only against Russia, but also its economic proxies. But Ukraine, according to Yahodzinsky, is getting its own card in this chess game – the card of weapons.
“We will have weapons. Perhaps with a month or two of delay. But even talks about Patriots are already changing the situation – not only at the front, but also in the diplomatic sphere,” noted Yahodzinsky.
At the same time, the professor warns that the new wave of military support does not mean a radical change in Trump’s policy toward Ukraine. Rather, it is a new stage of the game, where the parties are once again trying to “hang the situation” and create the effect of a deadline and pressure.
“I don’t think Trump has suddenly ‘seen the light’ on Ukraine. The policy has remained the same. Only the dates and postponements have changed. And we, in the face of a constant threat, want to see every coincidence as a sign,” added Yagodzinsky.
According to the professor, the Russian information space is not lagging behind either. Russian military commanders are already publicly stating that they will “do everything” in 50 days to make the negotiations with Kyiv meaningless. Instead, Yahodzinsky says, Ukraine is gaining confidence, including in its ability to respond in kind.
“Trump allegedly asks Zelensky: Why don’t you hit Moscow? And Zelensky replies that we can, just give us what we need. And this rhetoric already sounds like a signal: we are ready,” notes Serhiy Yahodzinsky.
Nevertheless, the key warning is not to succumb to euphoria. Because every new “advantage” is not only an opportunity, but also a risk. Especially if you again believe in a quick victory instead of complex strategic planning.
“It’s important not to lose control of the situation, not to succumb to emotions. Because these 50-60 days are a time of high tension and great danger. Not only for the frontline, but also for the statehood itself,” summarized Yahodzinsky.
50 days before a big deal or a big danger are not just loud headlines, but the reality in which Ukraine finds itself. The war is entering the decision-making phase, where any pause can be used by the enemy. Professor Yahodzinsky warns that in this game everyone plays for themselves, and even support can become part of the pressure. Therefore, the most important thing is not to lose your sobriety. Because the coming weeks are not just about waiting for decisions, they are about the struggle to preserve Ukraine’s subjectivity in a big geopolitical game.
