Farmers are not selling sunflower seeds: how this will affect oil prices in 2026
12 January 11:45
After sharp price fluctuations in recent years, sunflower oil remains one of the key products for Ukrainian households. War, global inflation, and changes in world agricultural markets directly affect its cost. At the same time, experts estimate that 2026 will not bring a significant increase in the price of this product for consumers in Ukraine. Leonid Kozachenko, president of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation, spoke about the main factors influencing oil prices and expectations for 2026 in an exclusive comment to "Komersant Ukrainian" .
The global market and competition from cheaper oils
According to the expert, sunflower oil is traditionally more expensive than other vegetable fats on the global market, in particular palm oil, which is produced in much larger volumes.
“Sunflower oil is more expensive than palm oil on the global market. Due to the war in Ukraine and complex global processes in many countries, inflation has accelerated, and various products, including sunflower oil, have begun to rise in price,” notes Leonid Kozachenko.
At the same time, it is precisely the high price that has caused a change in consumer preferences in many European countries.
“Even in European countries, where palm oil was previously despised, demand for it has grown because it is cheaper,” explains the expert.
According to him, this trend is holding back further growth in global prices for sunflower oil, and consequently in Ukraine.
Logistics and the domestic market
Logistics remains the second important factor. Transportation and export costs have risen significantly, which has hit producers hard but has not led to an increase in retail prices.
“Global prices have virtually stopped, and logistics have hit the pocketbook very hard. At the same time, domestic prices have fallen,” says Kozachenko.
According to him, most farmers are currently in no hurry to sell sunflower seeds.
“At least half of the farmers who have grain storage facilities have kept this product and do not want to sell it. Prices of 26-27 thousand hryvnia per ton do not suit them, because previously they could sell for more than 30 thousand,” notes the president of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation.
Will oil prices rise in 2026?
According to the expert, the combination of these factors will lead to relative price stability in the sunflower oil market in 2026.
“All these trends will keep the price of oil at its current level. There will be no significant increase in price,” emphasizes Kozachenko.
He does not rule out possible short-term fluctuations in the event of force majeure.
“Temporary problems may arise, such as product losses, damage to logistics centers, or short-term shortages. But even in such cases, they will not significantly increase prices,” the expert stressed.
In 2026, prices for sunflower oil in Ukraine are expected to remain relatively stable. Global competition from cheaper vegetable fats, restrained global prices, and the behavior of producers do not create the conditions for a sharp increase in prices. For consumers, this means that oil will remain affordable despite the difficult economic and security situation.
