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American elections 2024: analysis of Kamala Harris’ chances

OPINION

Kostiantyn Likarchuk, former Deputy Head of the State Fiscal Service of Ukraine

05.11.2024. Today is Election Day in the United States.

Here is an analysis of the situation in the US elections as of the night of the US time.

First, I want to say a few words about how we ended up in this place. Just to give an understanding of what (in the context of a historical and political phenomenon) or who (as a specific historical figure) we are dealing with when we talk about Kamala Harris.

As of 21.07.2024 (the day Joe Biden announced his decision to withdraw from the presidential campaign), Donald Trump had every chance of becoming the 47th President of the United States, his return to the White House seemed inevitable, so what we are talking about now is the miracle that Kamala Harris created in the 3.5 months of her blitz campaign.

Kamala Harris entered the presidential campaign with the worst cards in her hand. The unpopular Joe Biden, of whose administration she is a part, the absence of primaries, where traditionally the two major American parties choose a presidential candidate, low national awareness, a poorly conducted 2019 presidential campaign of her own, her race and gender (yes, the United States is still a largely racist and misogynistic country), negative personal ratings, and… the leader of the fascist MAGA movement, Donald Trump, as an opponent.

In 3.5 months, Kamala Harris completely turned the situation around. She managed the almost impossible – not only to bring the party to a draw, but also to seriously claim victory.

She has a remarkable political talent and strong political instincts that can make her one of the most successful American presidents in the long run.

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Now to the state of the election race.

According to early voting and mail-in ballots (80 to 110 million voters have already cast their ballots, about 2/3 of the total), if the election were to end now, Kamala Harris would win Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, which is enough to make her the 47th President of the United States.

In addition, there is a high probability of her victory in North Carolina, Georgia and Nevada.

I’m talking about REAL data, not speculation.

I would note that Pennsylvania raises the most questions. The odds are about equal there, so if Kamala Harris wins Pennsylvania, it will probably be by a minimal margin. But… If she wins Nevada and North Carolina or Georgia, she doesn’t need to win Pennsylvania.

There are, however, several unknowns in this whole story. The first is how independent voters vote. Some data (including, but not limited to, Saturday’s poll from Iowa, which is notable for its reliability and which I wrote about on Sunday) suggests that they are voting mostly for Kamala Harris. And the second is how Republicans vote. Given the wide gender gap, where the majority of voters are women, there is a cautious assumption that somewhere between 5-7% of Republicans vote for Harris. There is also an assumption that 1-3% of Democrats vote for Trump. If this is the case, Harris will win the election with confidence.

And the main thing for me is Kamala Harris’ position on Ukraine.

I don’t know whether American support will increase after Kamala Harris wins, because it depends a lot on the congressional elections, but I am convinced that Kamala Harris will never agree to an unjust peace for Ukraine. This is contrary to her worldview, ideology and values. Under the presidency of Kamala Harris, the female trio of Kamala Harris, Ursula von der Leyen and Kaya Callas will drive the puila to the zugunder, which is why the puila so strongly supports Donald Trump, who shares the “values” of fascism with him.

I would also note that as of now, Trump still has a good chance of becoming president of the United States.

Therefore, we are following the events further.

I wish Kamala Harris, American democracy, and all of us success today.

Source: Facebook

The blog reflects the author’s opinion only. The editorial team is not responsible for the content and accuracy of the materials in it.

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