Market analysts answered whether blackouts are possible in Ukraine

1 April 2024 16:39

ЕКСКЛЮЗИВ

After Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, talk of possible blackouts has intensified in Ukraine. Komersant ukrainskyi asked energy market experts how likely this prospect is.

Gennadiy Ryabtsev, a specialist in policy analysis and strategic planning at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, believes that the likelihood of blackouts is rather low.

“There are different scenarios, so there is no definite answer to your questions. But I estimate the likelihood of a repeat of the previous year’s scenario as low. Firstly, consumption has decreased. And secondly, there are still some reasons to hope that the energy sector will be able to solve the issues they are currently facing,”

– the expert believes.

Energy market analyst Maxim Bilyavsky is even more optimistic. He notes that blackout is a loss of frequency in the grid without any possibility of restoring it. However, in the Ukrainian reality, this is virtually impossible, as our grid has been synchronised with the EU’s integrated power system since 24 February 2022. Moreover, the Ukrainian power system remains balanced despite the shelling, he says.

“How do we balance it apart from emergency assistance? We are helped by alternative energy facilities, namely wind farms. The windy weather, with wind speeds of 15 km/h, has contributed to a slight increase in electricity generation at wind farms. In the next few days, quite a lot of solar activity is expected, which means that solar power plants will also increase their generation,”

– said the expert.

However, in the absence of a general blackout, there will certainly be problems with power supply where Russia has targeted energy facilities.

“There are several options for restoring power supply. The first is to restore basic power supply according to the basic technological scheme. The other option is to restore power supply under the emergency scheme. For the period of emergency repairs, which will last no more than 1-2 days, there may be restrictions on power supply in some regions. Especially in the evening. They will primarily affect industrial consumers, which are energy-intensive and can reduce their consumption load at the dispatcher’s command,”

– said Maksym Bilyavsky.