Iran’s attack on Israel is not World War III, but it contains opportunities for Ukraine. Analysts commented on the attack
15 April 2024 12:21
ЕКСКЛЮЗИВ
Iran’s attack on Israel, expected by many, was repelled by the troops of Israel, the United States, Britain, France and even Jordan. According to the Americans, they shot down more than 80 drones and at least 6 ballistic missiles. One of them was shot down before it was launched along with the installation in Yemen. The US Congress will promptly consider a bill to help Israel. Komersant ukrainskyi 
asked Ukrainian military analysts Oleg Zhdanov and Serhiy Zgurts why our partners do not show the same zeal to help Ukraine, whether the world is close to the beginning of the Third World War, and what Ukrainians should expect from these events.
Why doesn’t Ukraine receive the same kind of assistance as Israel?
Firstly, it should be noted that Israel has created a deeply tiered and three-tiered air defence system at its own expense (which is a huge amount of money, tens of billions of dollars) in almost 30 years. And it has simply demonstrated its effectiveness. And the fact that the United States, France and the United Kingdom helped Israel is how the strong always help the strong. The US and Israel also have a direct alliance agreement, which provides for fighting for an ally. The first point of allied responsibilities is to provide troops and comprehensive assistance for the conduct of hostilities to your ally. And the UK and France support Israel in advance. We are in a weak position today,
– Oleg Zhdanov, military expert
We have different legal formats of interaction. If we sign an agreement with the United States similar to the Israeli one, I think we will have a similar reaction,
– Serhiy Zgurets military expert
The beginning of the Third World War?
We can hardly talk about the Third World War because, in fact, the mountain gave birth to a mouse. And this strike was not as massive as expected, and 99% of the air attack assets were shot down. Despite the fact that there were 120 ballistic missiles, and this is the most difficult target today. We work on ballistic missiles only where we have Patriot, and even then it is not always effective, but they have such systems.
– Oleg Zhdanov military expert
Let’s wait to see how things develop. So far, we see that Iran is actually afraid to intensify further actions, and they have already stated that it was a response to Israel’s previous strike. So, I think we can hardly talk about the beginning of World War III. But so far, all the countries of the Middle East, the United States, the French and British alliance have demonstrated sufficient readiness for any development of the situation, except, in my opinion, Iran. I’m afraid that Iran is ready for escalation, and most likely these actions were caused by a political reaction to Israel’s actions.
– Serhiy Zgurets military expert
What are the consequences for Ukraine?
There are two scenarios. First, we will be forced to sit down at the negotiating table, and the conflict will be frozen. It is impossible to say for how long. Western analysts’ estimates, which were made six months ago, said that Russia would need 3-5 years to restore its combat capabilities and increase the number of armed forces to the figure of 1.5 million soldiers approved in the current legislation. This is what they are now trying to do, envisaging the mobilisation of at least 400,000 people by the end of this year. This is the worst-case scenario.
The best-case scenario is, as they say, no luck, but misfortune helped. Now there are movements in the US House of Representatives to vote on the bill [on aid to Israel and possibly Ukraine – ed. Johnson has promised to bring it to the floor. It is very difficult to say in what form he will bring it to the floor. But it could be an excuse to supply us with large amounts of weapons. And then we can talk about an optimistic scenario: with the help of aviation, missile troops, and a large number of them, we can turn the tide of the war in a few months
– Oleg Zhdanov military expert
I very much hope that Iran’s attack will lead to the unblocking of US aid to both Israel and Ukraine. Preliminary statements by a number of politicians suggest that the Biden administration is interested in this, that it has held some consultations. If this does come to fruition, it will be the most positive outcome of the deteriorating situation in the Middle East.
In fact, we believe that politics is now largely a consequence of what is happening on the battlefield – both the Ukrainian and Russian sides are committed to this. But it is possible that our partners have some other vision of the situation, where the issue of negotiations and creating preconditions for such negotiations can in some way dominate the military response. There are a lot of publications in the foreign press now related to a certain situation on the battlefield and the difficulties faced by the Ukrainian side. I think they reflect the behind-the-scenes processes associated with entering the negotiation format. But it is very difficult to predict now.
– Serhiy Zgurets military expert
