Azerbaijani gas in the Ukrainian pipeline: salvation or a new trap?
24 July 2024 13:05
EXCLUSIVE
In light of Ukraine’s refusal to extend the contract for the supply of Russian gas to Europe, opportunities and risks of alternative sources of supply, in particular gas from Azerbaijan, are being discussed in the Ukrainian information space. "Komersant Ukrainian" asked experts whether Azerbaijani gas can really save the Ukrainian gas pipeline and what scenarios are possible here.
Ivan Plachkov, the former minister of fuel and energy, proposes to revise the gas transit scheme through Ukraine.
“Let’s do it this way: you buy gas or oil in the Russian Federation up to the border with Ukraine, and you conclude a transportation agreement with us and pay us for the transportation of gas or oil through the territory of Ukraine. And all questions are removed.”
– he explains his position.
The ex-minister emphasizes the importance of the presence of gas in the Ukrainian pipeline, but also draws attention to the political aspect of the problem:
“As a citizen of Ukraine, I can ask the government a question: how is it that we are at war with the Russian Federation, and we have a contract with them, and we receive money from the Russian Federation for transport. We have contractual relations. We tell everyone: do not conclude contracts from the Russian Federation, apply sanctions. And what are we doing?”
Plachkov also calls to remember the possibility of serious provocations from Russia.
“the Russian Federation can do anything. Why, for example, do they attack the energy sector, but do not touch the gas transportation system? After all, they only fired at storage facilities, but not at pumping stations. Because there is transit. And if there is no transit, who can stop?”
– notes the expert.
Political scientist Ruslan Bortnyk considers a slightly modified version of this scenario – Ukraine transports Russian gas under the guise of Azerbaijani gas.
“It may happen that the Russian Federation will supply its gas under the guise of Azerbaijani gas to Ukraine. Since it makes no sense to drive gas from Azerbaijan through the Russian gas transportation system to Ukraine. Moreover, the Russian Federation has huge gas liquidity.”
– he claims.
That is, it will be about a traditional scheme, when everyone willing will buy Russian gas, bypassing any sanctions or restrictions.
“In the worst case, it will simply be a financial scheme, according to which Azerbaijani companies will receive payment from Ukraine allegedly for Azerbaijani gas, and then transfer this payment to Russian companies, acting as financial spacers.”
– predicts the political scientist.
Thus, experts agree that Ukraine needs to preserve its role as a transitor of energy carriers to Europe, but at the same time it is necessary to study very carefully all possible schemes and their consequences.
Europe and gas
As of the beginning of 2022, the EU was 40% dependent on Russian gas. In 2021, 65% of the gas that Germany bought was Russian. In the third quarter of 2023, only 12% of imported EU gas remained Russian.
The current contract for the supply of gas to Europe through the Ukrainian gas transport system expires in December 2024. Both sides have made it clear that they are not going to continue it.
At the same time, some EU countries remain dependent on Russian gas, for example, Hungary, Slovakia and Austria. The contracts of these countries with Gazprom provide for the supply of gas through the Ukrainian GTS. For example, Austria has signed a contract to supply gas until 2040.
After the shutdown of both Nord Streams and the shutdown of the Ukrainian GTS, Russia will be able to supply gas to Europe only through the Turkish Stream.
According to the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion, the European Union has bought 198 billion euros worth of energy carriers from Russia.
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