“Without a strong America, there will be no victory over authoritarianism”: RDI Executive Director Uriel Epstein on the US internal debate and its impact on support for Ukraine
28 June 2024 19:35
ЕКСКЛЮЗИВ
The events of the last six months in Ukraine raise questions about the future prospects and course of the Russian-Ukrainian war. All this is happening in the context of Ukrainian-American relations. The US will hold presidential elections in November. Since America is one of Ukraine’s key allies, the timing of the war’s end with a victory over the aggressor depends on the help of official Washington and who will lead it. In a conversation with Uriel Epstein, Executive Director of the Renew Democracy Initiative, a US-based non-profit organisation that promotes liberal democracy, "Komersant Ukrainian" lifts the veil on the internal US controversy.
on 24 April, after a lengthy debate in Congress, US President Joe Biden signs a bill to allocate $60bn to Ukraine. According to the head of state, “the aid will be sent to Ukraine in a few hours after it is signed”. However, more than a month later, on 1 June, in an interview with The Guardian, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that “little of the promised aid has been received”. What is the reason for this delay?
From the very beginning, the Biden Administration was too slow to respond. I often say that we should have given Ukraine more aid and done so at the beginning. Then the difference would have been huge. By the time the aid arrives, the territories are mined by the Russians, which is why tanks may not be able to get through. Our Abrams or European Leopards explode if they hit mines. But if the US had delivered the tanks to Ukraine 9 months earlier, Russia would not have had time to mine everything, and then your counter-offensive could have been more successful. Why everything is so slow: For the first 1.5 years of the war, the White House was afraid of its own shadow. About a month ago, CNN published an article stating that in 2022, the biggest fear of the United States was the threat of nuclear war and that Vladimir Putin might use tactical nuclear weapons. When this article came out, the Russian president started threatening nuclear war again. Because the Kremlin and Putin are not stupid. They understand what the enemy is afraid of, and they manipulate it. But my argument is that the more we react to nuclear threats, the more we exaggerate the chances of a real nuclear clash. Because then Putin will continue to use these threats, and he will not stop at Ukraine. I think that for the first year and a half, the US was more afraid of the Russians losing than it was of Ukraine winning. But they have to understand that your victory is more important for the stabilisation of the world than the danger of a Russian loss.
Why does the US believe that a Russian loss is dangerous?
Jake Sullivan(National Security Advisor to the President of the United States – ed.) thinks so. He is afraid that Russia will lose this war. If it loses the way it should, and we return to the 1991 borders, the whole world will see how weak the Russian army is compared to Western armies. All this increases the chances of the Putin regime falling. And they are afraid that the Russian Federation will then break up into republics. The key fear is the question: what will happen to nuclear weapons? After all, they are scattered all over the territory of the Russian Federation. In this case, with nuclear weapons, they could start fighting each other. Especially if such military leaders as Yevgeny Pryzhin, for example, come to the helm of power. This is what Sullivan is afraid of. He doesn’t want Russia to lose. But this idea is very dangerous. And here’s why: The Soviet Union collapsed without a nuclear war. Remember George H.W. Bush’s famous “Kyiv Cutlet”speech (the name given to the speech by US President George H.W. Bush delivered on 1 August 1991 in Kyiv, 23 days before Ukraine declared its independence from the Soviet Union – ed. He tried to save it out of fear of war. And now we are repeating this story, not realising that whoever comes after Putin is less dangerous than Putin himself. Even if it’s a leader like Pryzhin. But he will be weaker, and this must also be understood. There is a possibility of a nuclear war if Russia collapses. This is a serious risk that we cannot ignore. We must be prepared for it. But this risk exists even if Russia does not collapse. What scares me is that our leaders do not understand that Putin’s threats will not stop. And in five years, he will do it to other NATO members. For example, Dmitry Medvedev has already said that “Poland should not exist”. Then the following will happen: either NATO will cease to exist, or we are heading towards the third world war. At some point, Putin will try, and he will realise that the free world is not ready to retreat any further. And then there could be a nuclear clash. And if the free world supports Ukraine and Ukraine wins, then in this scenario there is a risk of nuclear war in the event of a breakup of the federation. However, the risk of a direct clash between Russia and the United States is significantly reduced, because now we are just giving you weapons.
The Russian dictator often bluffs. All his statements have been false from the very beginning. Starting from the moment he said that “Russia will never attack Ukraine”. As a result, he occupied Donbas and Crimea in 2014. In 2022, a full-scale war breaks out, and the dictator threatens with nuclear weapons. All Western partners and the United States have studied his tactics. President Joe Biden is an experienced politician who knows the psychology of the Russian leader. You have access to the White House. Can you say that Biden does not understand that Putin is bluffing? Is he afraid of the Kremlin’s threats?
Yes, I have access to Congress and the White House. But I cannot know what Biden thinks. I only know that there are disagreements within his administration. There are people like Secretary ofState Blinken, who is more aware of the risk of Ukraine losing. And I think it was he who convinced Biden and Jake Sullivan, after his trip to Ukraine, to allow the use of American weapons to strike Russian territory around Kharkiv. And that’s not enough. Do they realise that Putin is bluffing? That’s a good question. I think so. But they do not understand that this is a relative risk. Jake Sullivan is probably in control of American policy related to Ukraine. He studied at Yale University and graduated 15 years before me. We have several mutual friends, and I have met him several times. He is considered one of the smartest and most educated people in the US. But Sullivan is not a leader, he is a manager. He can work with tactics, but not with strategy. His position is to control everything and keep everything the way it is. He doesn’t understand, feel or think that we are living in a time when the country needs a leader, not a manager. History can change now, no less than in 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed and the Cold War ended. We also have this opportunity now, and Jake Sullivan is absolutely the wrong person for this moment. He does not look at the world from above, but from below. For example, his thoughts on the Russian-Ukrainian war look like this: “Okay, how can we control and avoid a nuclear war? We don’t want Ukraine to lose, but we don’t want Ukraine to win either. And we will give weapons in the format of “no more, no less”, i.e. in a dosed manner”. The same thing is happening in the Middle East. Israel cannot completely destroy Hamas, but Hamas cannot be allowed to do too much either. The same thing is happening in South America, with China. They look at each of these conflicts individually, instead of understanding that it is all interconnected, and it is part of a global war between the free world and authoritarianism.
Why does Sullivan choose to keep the balance instead of giving the victory to the one who deserves it?
The answer is trite. It has its roots in an elite education at a prestigious university in the United States. Because that’s what he was taught at Yale University. It didn’t affect me because my parents came from the Soviet Union. My father was a dissident back in Soviet times, and he left Moscow for Israel in 1973. My mother is from Kyiv. This was my second education. It came from my parents, who know what it means to fight against authoritarianism. There is no such thing in the American system of higher education. They think about how to control and minimise risks, not how to win. There have been stories in the US when leaders wanted to win. But it ended badly. For example, the Vietnam War, the war in Iraq, or when American troops left Afghanistan. And leaders looked at these wars that ended badly. And then they decided that “that’s it, we’re not going to try to change anything, that’s not our goal. Our goal is to control everything, to make sure that everything is stable, without change.”
Is it only Jake Sullivan who controls the allocation of aid, in particular to Ukraine? Or is it a whole system?
Yes, Congress plays an important role here. It is important not to forget that for the last 6 months before the bill was voted on in Congress, it was the Republicans’ fault. On the one hand, Democrats want stability. They are afraid of big changes. But on the other hand, there are “Trumpist Republicans” who want change, but in a different way. They want America to retreat from the world, and all relations to be purely commercial. It is no accident that Donald Trump is against NATO and Ukraine. He has no ideology or principles. It is a matter of commercial relations. Trump may support Ukraine if he wins the election. Perhaps he will be offered a lucrative deal that will encourage him to continue to provide this support. So, on the one hand, the Democrats have basic principles. But their main goal is to keep the world as it is. That is, to guarantee stability, in which there will be no changes. On the other hand, the Republicans have no principles at all. They are ready for change, but in the opposite direction – where America will not be the leader of the world, but will act solely in its own interests. Right now, there are no serious leaders in the United States who understand that we have a unique opportunity to use this historic moment to advance freedom and inflict serious damage on global authoritarianism.
Can we say that Jake Sullivan influences Biden’s decision-making?
When it comes to foreign policy, yes. No one in the US has as much power as the president. But Sullivan does not have access to internal affairs – everything related to the economy or other areas. He only has influence on foreign policy, and most of all on war and geopolitics. In these matters, his opinion is probably more important than that of the Minister of Defence and the Secretary of State.
Speaking of Donald Trump. In Ukraine, it is believed that if he comes to power, support for the United States will decrease. Trump has been found guilty in several criminal cases. Will he be able to become president of the United States if he is imprisoned?
Unfortunately, Trump will be able to hold the presidency if he is imprisoned. But it is unlikely that he will go to jail. The most likely outcome is that he will be given probation. If he does go to jail, he will only lose his right to vote, but not his right to run for office. And there are three other criminal cases in which he is involved. Trump is an absolute master at controlling the criminal proceedings because he has a lot of experience. This can only affect the American people, who will decide that they cannot vote for such a president. So far, I have not seen any evidence of this.
Can we really say that Trump is the worst option for Ukraine? Recently, The Washington Post wrote, without citing any sources, that at one of Trump’s campaign events, he said that he would “bomb Moscow and Beijing, and then there would be no war”. How can these words be interpreted?
Of course, Trump is worse for Ukraine, Israel and everyone else. As for Ukraine, it was his fault that the process of transferring aid took so long. If he had wanted to, the aid would have come six months ago. He forbade the Republicans to support the agreement that Republican and Democratic senators put together about 4-5 months ago, where they linked migration across the southern American border to aid to Ukraine. This is another important point. The Democrats said they were ready to do anything to give aid to Ukraine, while the Republicans said they would only give aid if something was done about the migration issue. However, it cannot be said that he will not help Ukraine at all. He cares about people’s recognition and his own reputation. Perhaps someone can convince him that it is in his interest. In the United States, such issues are also decided by the Congress. When this money is used up and there is nothing left – it will be 9 to 12 months – then the question will be: what will happen afterwards? The chances that the US will continue to provide assistance in this amount are small, but not zero. There are chances that someone will convince him that under his presidency, Russia cannot be allowed to defeat Ukraine. Then everyone will say that America is weak.
And what about his statements?
Trump’s personality changes every half hour, and it depends on the last person he spoke to. If he talks to Putin today, he will have the same answer. Tomorrow he will talk to Macron – the answer will be different. Trump is an unstable person. He is dangerous for the free world because it is impossible to predict his actions. First he says that his nuclear button is bigger than Kim Jong-un’s. Six months later, he says that Kim Jong-un is his closest friend. He has no strategic thoughts. You look for logic, but unfortunately, there is none. He is not a player. He is a comedian. His statements that he would “bomb Moscow and Beijing” are nonsense. In 2018, he was in Helsinki with Putin. Speaking at a press conference, he said the following: “Dear Mr Putin told me that he did not interfere in our elections, and I believe him. This was despite the fact that our intelligence had claimed that Putin had interfered in our politics. Trump didn’t believe the intelligence, he believed the dictator’s words. Then behind him was Fiona Hill, one of the most respected US experts on US-Russian relations. She was an adviser to Trump. We once conducted an interview with her, where I asked her about this incident. She told me that she was ready to pretend to have a heart attack and just run screaming to the press to stop this conference. Because his statements are an indicator that Trump can be manipulated. And this is very dangerous. Many of my Israeli friends believe that Trump will be better for Israel. And my answer is: in the short term, maybe. He will allow Israel to do whatever they want. But in the long run, it will only aggravate the situation. Because Israel, like Ukraine, needs a strong America. And if Trump does even 10% of what he says, America will only get weaker. We will withdraw from NATO and support dictators. And if one of the dictators tells Trump how good he is, Trump will believe him, not his own intelligence. That is why Trump is the most dangerous.
On 15-16 June, the Global Peace Summit was held in Switzerland. The event became the largest forum with more than 100 delegations from various countries and global organisations. The United States was represented at the summit by Vice President Kamala Harris and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. However, it was not known until the last minute who would attend the event and whether the head of state would attend such an important event. Why did Biden refuse to attend the forum? What could this be due to?
I don’t quite understand why Biden was not present. I said earlier that it’s not worth getting into this. Because the most important thing is help. We believe that the US president should have been present and worked to unite the free world around the defence of Ukraine, which is a key front in the war between freedom and authoritarianism. It is difficult to answer why the president was not present. Of course, he has his own priorities. Elections are coming up, and there were also questions about what would come out of this summit. It was unlikely that serious agreements would be signed. On the one hand, I don’t understand the logic of the Presidential Administration. On the other hand, I would say that it is not necessary to read into this, and it will not affect American support.
On the situation in the Middle East, US-Israeli relations, and pressure on Jerusalem over the Israeli army’s operations in the Gaza Strip
We see that the US is putting pressure on Israel in the war with the Palestinians. Earlier, the Israeli media reported that the United States was putting pressure on Jerusalem through the UN Security Council to reach an agreement with Hamas as soon as possible. There is also an escalation with Hezbollah brewing. According to CNN, the White House has assured Israel that it will still support it in the event of an escalation, but there is no talk of sending troops to help. What can you say about the relations between the two countries? And what is the reason for the US rhetoric?
I think the US will not stop supporting Israel. First of all, I believe that Joe Biden is a Zionist. Zionism means that Jews have the right to their own state, and Israel has the right to exist as a separate democratic state. Biden understands this, and he will not allow anything to happen to Israel. Secondly, it is in the interests of the United States. Israel is our most important source of intelligence in the Middle East, our most important ally, and the only democracy in the Middle East. From the point of view of American geopolitical interests, it is the most influential aircraft carrier there. They have a truly professional army, with virtually no corruption. And 70% of Americans support our relations with Israel. It has to do with interests and morality.
How would you comment on the events in Israel on 7 October 2023 and the actions of the Israeli army?
Society must understand that 7 October in Israel is ten times worse than 11 September 2001 for the United States. First, in terms of population proportions. In Israel, more than 200 people were killed, plus 200 people held hostage, women who were brutally raped. september 11 is a terrible day in American history. We watched videos of planes crashing into towers, people jumping down. And in Israel, people were beheaded live and shown invisible cruelty on camera. Psychologically, it affects people differently. I have been to Israel more than 20 times. During my last visit, a few weeks ago, I felt something I had never felt before. I saw how the people of Israel were afraid and tense. And this feeling is there even among young and brave people. Israel had no choice. Hamas is a terrorist organisation that hides behind civilians. And people who compare Russia’s actions in Ukraine with Israel’s actions in Gaza – sorry, these are different things. Your population is protected by your army. But for some reason, there are no bomb shelters in Gaza. I was in the south near Gaza. There are bomb shelters every 100 metres. When the siren sounds, you have 30 seconds to get down to the shelter. In Gaza, there is not a single one. Because for them, Hamas is a strategy for civilians to die. But there is an invisible number of tunnels there. Their tunnel system is bigger than the London Underground. And what can Israel do? On the one hand, they have no choice. They have to take out the terrorists, and they cannot ignore what happened. And again, maybe it’s self-ironic that if Israel didn’t have democracy, it would be easier. I understand how the world looks at this. And Israel also makes mistakes.
What mistakes are you talking about?
There is too little humanitarian aid going to Gaza. On the one hand, the US tried to send trucks across the sea. And we realised that none of the trucks reached where they were supposed to because there was sabotage. And they said that the Palestinians stopped the trucks. But the Palestinians do not have such weapons. Hamas has them. They steal most of the aid that comes through. On the one hand, Israel is making a mistake by not letting enough humanitarian aid through. But on the other hand, we understand that Hamas steals and sells a lot of this aid. This is how they make money and buy weapons.
Author – Yelyzaveta Nesvit
