Without Ukraine, about Ukraine? What will Biden discuss with European leaders in Berlin?

16 October 2024 17:28

ANALYSIS

At the end of last week, Reuters reported that US President Joe Biden is scheduled to visit Germany on 18 October. Although the visit will not officially be a state visit, will the Ukrainian issue be among the topics of discussion? Especially given that Biden did not come to Ramstein as promised earlier, and the leaders of the three leading European powers are likely to be present in Berlin.

Will they talk about Ukraine?

Political analysts believe that the meeting should definitely become a platform for coordinating positions on further support for Ukraine.

“The topic of Ukraine is likely to be raised, and I think it will be a coordination of positions at this stage of the war. Given that the issues that should have been discussed are still open,”

– political expert Stanislav Zhelikhovsky commented in an exclusive commentary to Kommersant Ukrainsky.

Most likely, he notes, they will discuss Zelensky’s victory plan.

“Most likely, during the meeting, the issue of Ukraine will be raised, consultations will be held on the victory plan that President Zelensky presented to each of these leaders,”

– zhelikhovsky believes.

Political analyst Ihor Reiterovych agrees:

“They will definitely talk about Ukraine. The topic of the peace plan, the victory plan, will definitely be discussed there. In the context of certain points.”

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Specific decisions?

The search for a common denominator on Zelenskyy’s peace plan may well end up with concrete solutions. And these may even be the solutions that Ukraine has been asking for for so long, Zhelikhovsky believes.

“I think that they will exchange views on what exactly can be implemented from this peace plan and what they are ready to do. I do not rule out that important key decisions may be made in the context of long-range weapons, possibly allowing their use deep into Russia. That is, exactly what the victory plan proposes,”

– zhelikhovsky admits.

Invitation to NATO (not)?

There is nothing to suggest that Ukraine is likely to receive any more favourable status in NATO in the near future, or even assurances of it. The issue will certainly be raised at the meeting, but the likelihood of any breakthrough is extremely low, experts say. However, it is not zero.

“Whether the parties will be able to agree to extend an invitation to Ukraine is a big question mark. Perhaps we will get this political decision, but we have to understand that no membership will be out of the question in practice while active hostilities are ongoing. This is rather an act of political support for our country in difficult times, so that we can hope for security guarantees from our allies after possible negotiations with Russia and a possible cessation of hostilities,”

– believes Zheliahovskyi.

New/old framework

After the meeting, Ukraine’s partners will certainly outline the agreements reached and inform the Ukrainian authorities about possible directions for further action. This format allows Western leaders to freely discuss sensitive issues, but at the same time puts Ukraine in a position of waiting for decisions that will directly affect its future. And this is already quite similar to a violation of the formula they once voiced – “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine”.