European security or political game: what is behind Macron’s new rhetoric and statements?
15 March 2024 14:04
ЕКСКЛЮЗИВ
French President Emmanuel Macron ‘s statement that the French government may have to send its own troops to Ukraine has come as a real cold shower not only to most French people, but also to many political leaders from all over Europe. Despite the tremendous pressure, Macron, however, does not retract his words, but only clearly and unambiguously confirms them. In particular, in yesterday’s big interview with French TV channels, Macron spoke about the need for Russia’s defeat (Western leaders only say that Russia should not win) and again did not rule out sending troops to Ukraine. The French leader even easily parried the threats of Russia’s nuclear cudgel, saying that France has one as well.
Thus, Macron now looks like perhaps Ukraine’s greatest friend, ready to go all the way to defeat Russia. However, what is really behind these statements? After all, it is somewhat alarming that the French president’s rhetoric changed overnight. Kommersant Ukrainian 
asked Ukrainian political experts about this.
No taboos…
Political analyst Yevhen Magda believes that Macron felt a lack of true political leadership in Europe and decided to act actively and toughly in the current circumstances.
“I believe that this statement by Macron is related to his powerful political game and his desire to become the informal leader of Europe. It is no coincidence that this is happening during the European Parliament election campaign, and it is no coincidence that this is happening right now, when Germany has begun to “hang up” on the issue of providing Ukraine with Taurus missiles. Macron accused the Germans of cowardice, which is quite funny in itself, because the Germans and the French are simultaneously on the path of increasing support for Ukraine as members of the Normandy Four. But in this case, Macron feels that he has an opportunity to become an informal leader of Europe. Especially since he is in his second term and can afford to make more harsh statements. He is acting in the interests of France, and he is acting quite actively,”
– the political scientist believes.
Volodymyr Fesenko, a political expert, agrees with him, saying that the recipients of Macron’s statements are Europe and its political leaders. However, in his opinion, Macron has thus started a discussion about the possible presence in Ukraine of individual servicemen or entire contingents of NATO member states. In fact, this is a violation of one of the last taboos that remain in the minds of the Western elite.
“It used to be a taboo. And now it is being discussed and even recognised that there may be individual servicemen who do not take part in combat operations. And this is already good.”
By raising the bar, Macron is making more moderate actions, such as supporting Ukraine with weapons and ammunition, obvious and routine. He is also sending a clear message to Putin.
“In this way, Macron is sending signals to Putin: we are against your further offensive against Ukraine, we will not allow you to capture most of Ukraine, stop, otherwise we will be forced to help Ukraine in a more significant way. That’s why Kyiv and Odesa were mentioned. And the presence of the French military should also be a kind of warning to Putin: you see, we are already sending our military, and if you move on, there may be more of them. We will not allow you to move on,”
– fesenko said.
…and without illusions
However, the political scientist adds that we should have no illusions about the possible participation of French or any other troops in our war. After all, for Western countries, we are talking about a high risk of military conflict with a nuclear power, which, in turn, threatens a nuclear war, which they all fear so much. That is why not only Germany, but also the United States, in particular President Biden in his address to Congress, made it clear: no soldiers in the war in Ukraine.
“France is not just Macron, and to make such serious decisions, we will need agreement. Macron has support in the parliament, but when it comes to troops and sending them to a warring country, it’s a different situation. The maximum that can be done is to send separate groups of soldiers, military advisers, technical specialists or a separate contingent of special forces for specific functions. On a limited scale and without direct participation in hostilities,”
– says Volodymyr Fesenko.
What about friendship?
Macron’s loud statements shocked most people, as France has not been known for Russophobia, to put it mildly. On the contrary, the economic, political and cultural ties between the two countries were extremely strong and went back almost to Napoleonic times. However, Russia’s military aggression seems to have opened the eyes of even the French.
“Now, not only in France but also in other countries, there are no active Russian partners. In fact, in Europe, Russia’s most active partner is Alternative for Germany [a nationalist and right-wing populist party – ed.] France has no such partner. At one time, Putin actively supported Marine Le Pen’s National Front, but now we see that even she is now distancing herself from Putin to some extent and condemning Russia’s war against Ukraine,” Fesenko said,
– says Fesenko.
Over the past two years, the political discourse in Europe has narrowed the possibility of expressing direct support for Russia to the maximum.
“The maximum that is possible is a pacifist position on the part of various populist parties. This is also evident in France. Not as strongly as in other countries, but there are certain pacifist sentiments that “we need to end this war”,”
– the political scientist added.
What’s next?
Macron’s next logical step in this situation should be to not recognise Putin’s election, political analyst Yevhen Magda believes.
“I would like Macron to say “B” after “A” and ensure that the G7 countries do not recognise Putin’s presidential election, which will be held, among other things, in the occupied territories of Ukraine. Because the occupation of 20% of Ukraine’s territory and the desire to hold a farce called the presidential election of the President of the Russian Federation there is a mockery of electoral procedures as such,”
– magda believes.
