Why is Ukraine’s energy independence impossible without expanding nuclear capacity?
Today, nuclear generation is the backbone of Ukraine’s power system. We can discuss the pros and cons of nuclear power as much as we want, debate the feasibility of developing nuclear power, and whether it is better to build new units or continue to operate existing ones, but the fact remains that without domestic NPPs, survival during the autumn and winter period of the last three years would have been unimaginable.
After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, many countries, including European ones, began to look at the issue of energy independence in a new light, and nuclear generation plays a key role in this independence. For example, Poland, which has never had nuclear power plants, is now actively working on the construction of the country’s first nuclear power plant. And Poland’s focus on nuclear power is another indication that the country is seriously considering its energy independence. Germany has begun expert discussions on the resumption of nuclear development, some other EU countries, such as Belgium and Spain, are beginning to reconsider their previous rejection of nuclear development, and at the climate conference, 20 countries agreed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by increasing nuclear generation.
But what about Ukraine?
Three years of full-scale invasion, terrorist attacks by Russia on energy facilities, hours without electricity and often without heat have made every Ukrainian think at least once about how Ukraine can strengthen its energy system. The answer is simple: without nuclear generation, it cannot. As well as, in fact, its energy independence.
So far, the only reliable source of electricity is the 9 units of Ukrainian nuclear power plants under our control. In addition, Ukraine imports part of its electricity from the European Union. The share of thermal power plants and hydroelectric power plants in the energy system has been greatly reduced as a result of Russian terrorist attacks. It would seem that the problem of shortages can be solved by gas turbine generation, because gas turbines can be quickly deployed and moved to different locations, but they are not able to cover the existing deficit, and it is not yet known what will happen with gas in the future. Therefore, they can rather be considered as backup generation and used to balance load peaks. Renewable energy sources are also unable to adequately cover the needs not only because of their unpredictability, but also because of their objectively low share in the autumn and winter period.
In a time of war, it may seem that the construction of new units is “not timely” or “expensive” because everyone is looking for a “here and now” solution. Of course, the needs of the frontline, the defense industry and the salaries of military personnel are now of paramount importance, and the entire economy should work for victory, and everything else should be done as far as possible. However, using the concepts of “energy independence” and “energy security,” the solution must go deeper than meeting immediate needs. We should also think about further prospects on a global scale of planning the future of the state, so that after the victory we have the resources to rebuild it. In my opinion, such a solution is to expand domestic nuclear capacities, and some funds will have to be allocated for this, among other things.
Why does Ukraine need new power units?
As I mentioned at the beginning, Ukrainian NPPs are the backbone of the energy system, and the realities of the war have proven this. However, 12 of the 15 nuclear units were commissioned back in the Soviet era, and the last newest constructed units were commissioned more than 20 years ago in 2004 (No. 2 at Khmelnytsky NPP and No. 4 at Rivne NPP). Therefore, the issue of replacing the national nuclear fleet will soon be on the agenda, whether we want it or not, and the best option would be to prepare for it in advance, since a nuclear unit is not built in a year or two. Therefore, as long as 9 out of 15 of our units are operating, Ukrainian society can still afford long talks and discussions about the need for new units.
However, time is passing, the issue is not being resolved, and the existing power units are getting older, so it will not be possible to put off the issue of their replacement after the decision to decommission them for long. The design lifetime of most Ukrainian NPPs is 30 years, and several more decisions can be made to extend operation after modernizations for periods of 10 years based on a comprehensive assessment of the state of equipment and safety.
The same question remains about the condition of the equipment at six power units of the Zaporizhzhya NPP temporarily occupied by the Russians. After it returns to Ukraine’s control, it is very difficult to say exactly when Europe’s largest nuclear power plant will start generating electricity and whether it can happen at all after the occupiers’ rule… Because the Russians do nothing but provoke degradation of equipment, which will then have to be restored by Ukrainian specialists at considerable expense.
It is also worth noting that increasing nuclear capacities will also have economic benefits for Ukraine, because in addition to meeting the growing demand for electricity (which will definitely increase during the postwar reconstruction period), export revenues will help support the Ukrainian economy, which will definitely need such support. We will be able to sell electricity instead of importing it from Europe, as we do now.
Relying on nuclear power plants to meet energy needs is an absolute norm for France, the United States, China, etc. So why is it that in Ukraine, a country where nuclear power has proven its capability and value, the obvious need to increase nuclear capacity raises so many questions? Yes, we have a negative experience of NPP operation – the Chornobyl accident. However, we should not forget that this disaster happened solely because of the negligent attitude of the staff, violation of regulations, and concealment of flaws in the reactor design by the Soviet totalitarian regime.
Therefore, if we want a truly bright future for our country, it is impossible to imagine it without expanding the Ukrainian nuclear park.
