Budanov gave an approximate timeframe for when conditions for ending the war may appear
20 November 06:55
In early or mid-February 2026, Ukraine may receive a new “window of opportunity” for negotiations with Russia to end the war. This forecast was voiced by the head of the Defense Ministry’s Main Intelligence Directorate, Kyrylo Budanov, in an interview, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports
“The critical moment is mid-February”
When asked about the most likely time for signing a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, Budanov said that it could happen in the winter. He explained that the critical moment will come in mid-February, as that is when key events will unfold.
“We will be approaching this in the winter, let me put it this way. Our window will open again in mid-February. All events will take place in early to mid-February.”
Russia’s plans for the winter: strikes on the energy system
Budanov also added that Russia plans to launch a new wave of strikes on the Ukrainian energy sector in the winter to put pressure on Ukraine and its allies before the talks.
He noted that the Russian side had conducted a thorough study of this strategy and decided to act in this way.
According to him, attacks on the energy sector will create maximum public outcry both within Ukraine and among international partners, causing significant fear of continued instability.
Situation on the frontline: priority is Donetsk region
Regarding the situation on the frontline, Budanov noted that Russia’s priorities remain unchanged – the main goal is the full occupation of the Donetsk region, which they want to achieve in the spring of 2026. However, he emphasized that this task is virtually impossible to achieve within the specified timeframe due to Ukraine’s strong defense.
“The complete occupation of Donetsk region is not even calculatively realistic in such a timeframe. That is, the task is set to fail in advance, but they will try. We will see how it goes. In the south, they are trying to get close to the city of Zaporizhzhia. This is their goal. [They want to start an artillery terror, which will force both the military command to withdraw from the left bank and the civilian population to leave the city,” the intelligence chief added.
Budanov was optimistic about the defense situation near Zaporizhzhia, saying that the situation there is much more stable compared to the east of the country. He also spoke about the successful retention of Pokrovsk, where the landing of Ukrainian troops allowed them to gain time to pull up the main forces and ultimately prevent the occupiers from advancing in that direction.
Parallel negotiations with the participation of the United States and Russia
Meanwhile, the American edition of Axios, citing sources among representatives of the United States and Russia, reported on secret talks between the administration of US President Donald Trump and Russia to end the war in Ukraine.
The plan discusses 28 key provisions covering peace in Ukraine, security guarantees for the region, European security, and future relations between the United States, Russia, and Ukraine.
