“Budapest Memorandum 2 or a substitute for NATO: experts on Ukraine’s security agreements
29 February 2024 13:13
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Germany and Denmark. It is with these countries that Ukraine has managed to conclude security agreements in more than a month. However, it is not going to stop there – negotiations are underway with Japan, the United States, Romania, Poland and other countries. Political analysts have different opinions – some say that these agreements could become another “Budapest Memorandum” because they have not been ratified, while others say that these are unprecedented steps that allow Ukraine to join the North Atlantic Alliance sooner. “Kommersant Ukrainsky 
talked to experts to find that “golden mean” and understand what these “security agreements” really mean for Ukraine.
Agreements are not guarantees
Undoubtedly, security agreements are important for both Ukraine and other countries bilaterally to strengthen defence capabilities through new partnerships and joint arms production. However, they are not security guarantees, and it is very important to understand this, explains Hanna Hopko, former Member of Parliament and member of the Ukrainian delegation to the Munich Conference.
“No one gives us any guarantees, and it is important to understand this. It’s just like when we signed the Budapest Memorandum, the English word was ‘assurances’, and the Ukrainian word was ‘guarantees’. So Ukrainians thought it was guarantees, but it was assurances… And so now I would like us to have clarity, it is very important.
Now I see that there is a chase for the number of security agreements: every week we sign more and more agreements, we say how great it is that we will have another agreement. But friends, Ukraine first and foremost needs a clear strategy to defeat Russia, and the West needs to get rid of the fear of Russia’s defeat. This is the key. Ukraine’s victory cannot depend on whether we are supported or not,”
– said Hanna Hopko.
Emergency assistance from partner countries
Despite the lack of ratifications, the security agreements allow the Ukrainian government to apply to partner countries for the most extreme assistance at any time. This is the opinion of Stepan Havrysh, First Deputy Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council in 2008-2011.
“It is no coincidence that Emmanuel Macron (President of France – ed.) raised the possibility of sending Western military forces to Ukraine at an informal summit. And although this topic immediately raised objections, at the same time, this (sending military forces – ed.) is one of the extreme ways of security assistance that can still be used. On the basis of these agreements, Ukraine could engage not only advisers, but also, for example, professional pilots, air defence specialists, etc. In other words, we are not even talking about using regular armed forces, but about using private capabilities for this purpose. This is very important and necessary for Ukraine,”
– admitted Stepan Havrysh.
He said that Britain has long been talking about using its special military units to help Ukraine:
“We partly know about this from a publication in The New York Times, which talks about the ‘eyes’ of CIA special forces in Ukraine and the construction of appropriate bases for joint use by the GUR and the CIA. We also know about joint actions to manage military operations.”
a “grey” zone for Ukraine
The signing of security agreements will not help Ukraine move closer to NATO, as Ukraine has been made clear that we are not welcome in the North Atlantic Alliance, diplomat Ruslan Osypenko believes. In his opinion, as a result, Ukraine will become a kind of “buffer” between Europe and Russia, and security agreements have a direct impact on this:
“We are still afraid of being accepted into NATO. And they will not accept us at the Washington summit, because they hope to reach an agreement with Russia. Despite the signing of these Security Agreements, I think we will be used as an armed buffer between Europe and Russia. Europe will “pump” us with weapons, create joint defence ventures with us, transfer technologies, in other words, in fact, do everything that is mentioned in the security agreements. So, to summarise, not accepting us into NATO but signing security agreements are all elements of the same scenario. Ukraine will be in the grey zone and will ‘protect’ the EU from Russia.”
Author: Alyona Kaplina
