Bookmakers no longer believe in the end of the war this year
9 April 14:05
FORECAST
US President Donald Trump’ s efforts to suspend the Russian-Ukrainian war and the current state of negotiations between the US and Russia do not make a positive impression on bookmakers. Moreover, for the first time since the start of accepting such bets, they estimate the probability of ending the war below 50%, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
on April 9, on the well-known Polymarket platform, the odds that the Russian-Ukrainian war will end in 2025 are currently 47%. This means that the war will be stopped in 2025 with a 47% probability.
As you can see from the chart, the quotes have been in a deep dive since March 18, after Putin met with Trump’s special envoy Steve Vitkoff in Moscow and the meeting did not bring any visible results.
The situation with the quotes that Trump will stop the war in the first 90 days of his term, i.e. by April 20, is absolutely hopeless. After all, during his election campaign, he repeatedly stated that he would cope with this task in 100 days (and to a lesser extent, he stated that it would take him 24 hours).
However, bookmakers estimate the chances of such an event occurring at a scant 3%. And it is obvious that the quotes will not rise.
Polymarket is an American cryptocurrency-based prediction marketplace headquartered in Manhattan, New York. Launched in 2020, it offers a platform where investors can bet on various future events, including economic indicators, weather conditions, awards, and political and legislative outcomes.
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Chronicle of US-Russian negotiations
on February 18, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Russian Assistant Prime Minister Yuri Ushakov met in Saudi Arabia with an American delegation, represented by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Volz, and Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff.
After the talks, the US State Department reported that the delegations agreed to “eliminate irritants” in bilateral relations and continue to work on preparing talks on Russia’s war against Ukraine.
The parties also agreed to appoint high-level groups for further negotiations on Ukraine.
The media reported that the US and Russia discussed a three-stage peace plan for Ukraine, which consists of the following stages:
- A ceasefire.
- Holding elections in Ukraine.
- Conclusion of a peace agreement.
on February 27, negotiations between the Americans and Russians continued in Istanbul. According to the Russian side, they discussed the normalization of diplomatic relations. The Kremlin also allegedly demanded the return of 6 properties that had been seized from Russians in the United States in 2016-2018, and also proposed to resume air travel.
on March 13, Putin met in Moscow with Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff. The parties did not make any statements about the results of the meeting, except for the words of Trump’s national security adviser Mike Volz that there are grounds for cautious optimism.
on March 25, the United States agreed with Ukraine and Russia to ban attacks in the Black Sea.
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