Bookmakers changed bets on the end of the war after Trump’s conversation with Putin: new quotes
13 February 2025 13:18
Following yesterday’s conversation between US President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin, bookmakers have significantly changed their betting odds on whether the Russian-Ukrainian war will end in 2025. This was reported by "Komersant Ukrainian".
Yesterday, Donald Trump spoke with Putin and then with Zelensky. As reported by 
, they talked about the future peace and about the meeting of the Trump delegation at the Munich conference on Friday. At the same time, the US President did not specify with whom this meeting should take place.
Trump’s conversation with Putin significantly changed the expectations of bookmakers regarding the US President’s peace efforts. For example, on the well-known Polymarket platform, the odds that the Russian-Ukrainian war will end in 2025 have increased to 70%.
This means that the war will end in 2025 with a 70% probability.
Before the conversation, the corresponding quotes were 64%. And the lowest they were this year was on January 12 – 56%.
At the same time, on January 1 of this year, the mood was even more optimistic – the quotes were 71%. The day before, Budanov said that the new year “will bring what we all expect.”
The quotes for the event “Will Trump end the war in Ukraine in the first 90 days?” also increased After the US President’s conversation with Putin, they rose to 35% from 28%.
However, in this case, the quotes are far from the peak of optimism. They were highest right after Trump won the election last November, reaching 53%.
Polymarket is an American cryptocurrency-based prediction marketplace headquartered in Manhattan, New York. Launched in 2020, it offers a platform where investors can bet on various future events, including economic indicators, weather conditions, awards, and political and legislative outcomes.
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Trump’s position on Ukraine
During the election campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly said that he would stop the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office. This deadline has already passed.
Also during the election, the media spread the so-called “Trump Plan”. The plan was that the United States would use its influence to stop the war, taking into account the status quo. To do this, Trump would force Putin and Zelenskyy to sit down at the negotiating table. If Putin does not agree to negotiate, the United States will give Ukraine all the weapons it needs to win on the battlefield. If Zelenskyy refuses to negotiate, the United States will completely stop helping Ukraine.
This plan, in its various variations, included a provision that Russia would retain the territories it temporarily occupied and that Ukraine would not join NATO.
However, later Trump seemed to “forget” about this plan. In particular, he voiced scenarios in which he would force Russia to capitulate due to the decline in world oil prices.
After Trump was elected President of the United States, one of his advisors, Brian Lanza, said that Ukraine should forget about Crimea. Trump’s entourage, however, was quick to deny this statement and said that Lanza could not speak on his behalf.
Currently, the US Special Representative for Russia and Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, is talking about 100 days within which he wants to reach some kind of agreement. Of these, 24 days have already passed. During this time, the US presidential administration has established contact with the Kremlin, an American envoy has traveled to Moscow, and Trump has spoken to Putin on the phone and allegedly agreed to meet in Saudi Arabia.
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