A cup for the price of gold: why coffee is rising in price in Ukraine – and what will happen next
19 June 2025 12:10
Coffee has long ceased to be a luxury – for many Ukrainians, it has become a daily ritual. But over the past year, its price in stores and coffee shops has risen significantly. Roasters and coffee experts told Kommersant why this happened, what to expect by the end of 2025, and what kind of coffee Ukrainians drink today.
According to stock exchange analysts, over the past 12 months, global coffee prices have risen by more than 30%, and Arabica varieties have risen by 40% to their highest levels in the past 2 years. In Ukraine, the situation is further complicated by logistics, the exchange rate and customs costs: imported coffee has risen in price by at least 25-35% over the year, and a cup of coffee in coffee shops has risen in price by an average of 5-10 hryvnias.
The rise in coffee prices has several reasons, and they go far beyond Ukraine to the plantations of Brazil, Guatemala, Vietnam, and Ethiopia, says Andriy Khomenko, owner of the Kava Avenue coffee chain.
Crop failures due to droughts, climate change, and natural disasters have reduced supply. And since the price of coffee is regulated by the exchange, even problems in one country affect prices worldwide, he adds.
“Farmers in Costa Rica failed to harvest about 20% of the planned crop. As a result, coffee prices are rising in Brazil, Colombia, and Vietnam,” Khomenko explains.
Another reason is global economic turbulence, he continued.
“The price of everything is rising, from gold to bitcoin. The coffee market reacts to these processes,” Khomenko adds.
Another factor behind the rise in coffee prices is the rapid growth in global demand, says Ivan Penyora, a coffee expert, roaster, taster, and founder of Penyora Specialty Coffee.
“In Asian countries, especially in China and Japan, coffee consumption has grown significantly. This creates an additional deficit in the global market,” he informs.
In addition, according to him, a few years ago coffee was almost not rising in price, and now the market is “catching up” with the true cost.
“This is organic growth. It was just a question of when it would happen. Now is the moment,” adds Peñora.
One of the less obvious but important reasons for the rise in coffee prices is logistics.
“Last year there was a story about coffee delivery by sea. Ships carrying coffee from Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania were forced to change their routes because of pirates in the Caribbean. They were constantly terrorized, which greatly delayed the logistics. Normally, it takes up to two months to deliver coffee from Africa to Europe. But there were cases when coffee took six months. This greatly affected the market: the longer the coffee is on the way, the greater the risk, the higher the price. There was also instability in the ports and a lack of containers,” explains Peñora.
He noted that as of today, the situation has normalized and coffee is traveling faster.
The upward trend in prices will continue, the industry warns.
“By the end of 2025, coffee will rise in price by another 5-10%,” Khomenko said
He added that a return to previous prices is unlikely.
“If there is a decline, it will be no more than 10-15%,” he said.
Along with rising prices, the culture of coffee consumption is also changing, says Peñora.
“More and more people in the world are drinking Arabica rather than Robusta. In Ukraine, the same is true,” says Ivan Peñora.
Consumers’ tastes are also changing – demand is shifting toward higher-quality coffee.
“Specialty coffee is rapidly gaining popularity (the highest quality beans with a score of 80 points on the SCA scale – ed.) And the main trend is filter coffee. In our coffee shop, filter coffee is a top seller. It’s not that bitter instant stuff from the 90s, but a clean, light, flavorful drink that, by the way, can be made at home. A filter coffee maker is enough for this – many Ukrainians have already switched to this format,” adds Penora.
Although coffee is becoming a delicacy in terms of price, Ukrainians will not give it up. They are simply becoming more demanding, smarter consumers, choosing not only brands, but also quality, brewing method, and even the country of origin of the beans.
