Russia runs out of fuel due to Ukrainian strikes on refineries – Politico
1 May 2024 10:14
A wave of Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries in Russia has led to a fuel shortage. This was reported by "Komersant Ukrainian" with reference to Politico
According to Russian government data, diesel prices for Russian consumers have risen sharply – by almost 10% in the last week alone. Petrol prices have also hit a six-month high and are up more than 20% since the start of the year as supplies dwindle and more refineries are forced to suspend production.
More than a dozen oil refineries in nine Russian regions have been hit by drones this year. Ukrainian officials have said that the industry is a legitimate target of the war.
“It’s like a mosquito – when you can’t find it, you can’t kill it, and it keeps coming back night after night, you will be exhausted. This is a very good way to take pressure off the front line… [This strategy] will be taught in officer training academies decades from now.”
– Philip Ingram, a former British military intelligence officer and NATO planner, comments on the Ukrainian approach.
As a result, Moscow has cut fuel exports to near historic lows, shipping just over 712,000 tonnes of diesel and gas oil last week, down from more than 844,000 in the same week in 2023.
Igor Yushkov, an analyst at Russia’s National Energy Security Foundation, said prices are unlikely to fall anytime soon – and Russia may even have to import petrol from reserves stored in neighbouring Belarus.
Last year, Moscow was forced to impose a ban on petrol and diesel exports due to shortages in the domestic market, where it had previously kept prices low to appease motorists and artificially stimulate the agricultural sector.
However, with fuel costing more internationally, middlemen made money by selling cheap petrol abroad that was intended for use in Russia, creating a booming black market. Moscow eased the ban in November, but was forced to re-impose it in March due to the Ukrainian strikes.
While most Western countries have stopped importing refined Russian fuels such as petrol and diesel, the United Arab Emirates, along with several South American and North African countries, have continued to buy it to take advantage of low prices or re-export it. Moscow will now have to choose between maximising the cash flow that fills its war chest and providing fuel for its army and civilians.
ukraine’s “physical sanctions” may accelerate the real ones. Kyiv has exposed Moscow’s technological vulnerability, and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries accelerate the impact of Western sanctions, which are already forcing these refineries to replace Western equipment, spare parts and software,”
– said Maria Shagina, an expert on Russian economy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Meanwhile, the US has eased sanctions against key Russian banks to allow Russia to sell energy resources.
Following the intensification of Ukrainian shelling of Russian oil refineries, it was reported that the US was calling on Ukraine to stop attacking Russian refineries. The media reported that Washington had repeatedly sent calls to the GRU and the SBU to stop attacks on Russian refineries. This information was not confirmed in Washington, but later, US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin voiced a call not to attack Russian refineries.
