Why the power is not being switched off anymore and whether Ukraine will hold out until winter
1 August 2024 14:09
ЕКСКЛЮЗИВ
There has been a temporary improvement in the energy supply situation in Ukraine, which has led to an end to blackouts. However, this phenomenon should not be linked to the upcoming winter period. This was stated by energy expert Gennadiy Ryabtsev in a commentary to Komersant ukrainskyi
.
According to Ryabtsev, the improvement in the energy supply situation is due to several factors that, unfortunately, do not guarantee stability for a long time.
According to him, the improvement in the energy sector has nothing to do with winterisation.
“It has nothing to do with winter. This is a temporary improvement caused by the release of several nuclear power units from repair,” the expert said.
Why are the lights still on?
The main reason is the completion of repairs at several nuclear power units, which has increased electricity generation. Two nuclear units are now operating at full capacity, which has helped stabilise the energy situation in the country.
Favourable weather also plays an important role. Due to the absence of a lot of rain and sufficient hours of sunshine, the power plants operate efficiently.
“On top of that, the temperature has dropped from 35 to 25 degrees, which has reduced energy consumption. So now there is a rather shaky balance between generation and consumption,” Ryabtsev said.
However, this balance is quite fragile and depends on many factors. In particular, if the weather deteriorates and the number of hours of sunshine decreases, this may lead to a decrease in generation at solar power plants. It should be noted that solar power plants currently rank second in the electricity generation structure after nuclear power plants, providing about 18% of total generation.
Will Ukraine hold out until winter?
Ryabtsev notes that as weather conditions deteriorate, it is possible that the stabilisation blackouts for one consumer group will return to the schedule. This is also likely in the event of further Russian attacks on the energy infrastructure. Such a situation with outages may last until the start of the heating season.
“And this situation, when at most one or two lines of consumers will be cut off, may last long enough until the start of the heating season, i.e. until mid-October,” the expert explained.
With the onset of the heating season, electricity consumption will increase by a third. It will not be possible to compensate for this increase in consumption from existing stocks and reserves. Therefore, Ukraine is likely to return to three or four rounds of blackouts.
Thus, the current temporary improvement in the energy sector is not sustainable, and Ukraine may face new challenges in the winter. Therefore, Ukrainians should be prepared for possible blackouts in the winter.
Author: Iryna Shevchenko
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