Why Russia has suspended missile attacks: an expert gives two reasons
18 October 2024 12:18
РОЗБІР ВІД 
Russia’s sudden cessation of massive missile attacks may be the result of a number of factors affecting its ability to conduct such strikes. In an exclusive commentary to "Komersant Ukrainian", military expert Oleg Zhdanov said that the main reason is the lack of missiles and technical problems with launchers.
In this context, the expert notes that Russia has now switched to an arms buildup mode.
“Missile attacks have been stopped, most likely due to the lack of missiles in Russia. They are now in the accumulation mode. This is the first thing. And the second is the technical condition of the launchers. They are not rubber and cannot be launched endlessly,” Zhdanov said.
He explained that missile launchers have a limited lifespan, after which they require routine maintenance.
“The fact is that, for example, the Kalibr launcher has a certain lifespan, after which it needs to be routinely repaired to restore its combat capability and technical condition,” the expert added.
He also noted that Russia could be waiting for a better time to launch new strikes, probably during the cold season, when weather conditions could play in its favour.
“So I think that this is exactly what it is – the accumulation of missiles, the technical condition of the launchers, and waiting for a better time to use them, which is the cold season.
That’s why Russia is now lurking, I would say,” Zhdanov said.
Zhdanov points out the difference in the use of Shaheds and missiles. Drones do not require sophisticated launchers, as they are launched using a simple metal frame and a catapult.
The situation with missiles, however, is much more complicated. Zhdanov notes that missiles such as those launched from Tu-95 aircraft have not been used for more than a month. This indicates that Russia is trying to restore the technical condition of these aircraft.
“And the missiles – for example, TU-95s have not taken off for more than a month. This suggests that they are most likely trying to restore their technical condition. And the production of TU-95 in Russia has not been going on for a long time, the aircraft are old, Soviet. That is why they are forced to restore them now,” the expert concluded.
The expert also points out that the absence of massive missile strikes can be considered a temporary lull. As soon as the Russian army restores its technical capabilities and starts training crews for new launches, we can expect more strikes.
