Is Putin Really Ready to End the War in Ukraine: Views of the Kremlin and the West
16 January 14:25
In order to reach any agreements in the war, it is necessary to stabilize the front line in Ukraine. This was stated by Mike Volz, a candidate for the position of National Security Advisor in the team of US President-elect Donald Trump, in an interview with ABC News. According to him, an important step in this regard will be to lower the mobilization age to 18, which will allow Ukraine to attract additional resources for the fight. While Volz is discussing possible steps to achieve peace, his colleague Kurt Volker, former US State Department special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, believes that Putin will not stop the war only after Donald Trump’s calls. However, in his opinion, Trump can create conditions under which Putin will be forced to stop his aggression. What conditions can be imposed on the Kremlin and whether there is actually a single Kremlin position on negotiations to end the war
Donald Trump is probably preparing for quick decisions in various areas, including politics, economics, diplomacy, and military action. This is the opinion of an exclusive commentary by
“We anticipated that Trump would work on preparing the ground for decisive steps, and this is already evident in many areas. Perhaps one of the first such steps will be direct contact with Vladimir Putin, in particular through telephone conversations,” Yahodzinsky said.
Trump can force Putin to make concessions
According to him, Trump, who is famous for his ability to conduct direct negotiations, can enter into a direct dialogue with the Russian leader, even though this may happen without Ukraine’s participation in the process. However, he also noted that such a step has its risks.
“The first thing Trump will do is to try to enter into direct negotiations and put gentle pressure on Putin, offering him some compromises. But there is a danger that Ukraine’s interests may be partially sacrificed. Putin demands direct victories with the United States only because Ukraine’s presence will deter him from making concessions in terms of Ukraine’s interests. The Kremlin realizes that it is only through the United States that they can break through the subordination or ignoring of Ukraine’s interests,” explained Sergiy Yahodzinsky.
He also does not rule out that Trump may use institutions like the UN to create indirect channels of communication with countries that support Russia, including China, Iran, Israel, and Syria.
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“Trump may try to play on political influence through NATO, promising Putin to reduce the alliance’s influence in Europe. This could become a lever for reaching a compromise if Trump can demonstrate that he demands higher defense spending from NATO countries,” added Yagodzinsky.
However, according to Yahodzinsky, there are serious concerns that Ukraine’s interests may be partially sacrificed in the negotiation process. Trump is well prepared, but it is important to understand how Putin will react to this.
“If Putin receives guarantees from Trump that he will not be drawn into a long-term game, he may agree to make certain concessions. And for us, no matter how cynical it may sound, this concession may be a cessation of hostilities,” summarized Sergiy Yahodzinsky.
The expert emphasized that the big problem now is that Putin does not intend to stop, which makes possible negotiations particularly difficult and important for Ukraine.
What do they say about the negotiations in the Kremlin?
The Kremlin’s position on Ukraine remains unchanged. According to Putin’s aide, Nikolai Patrushev, who previously held the more respectable position of secretary of the Russian Security Council, the dictator has no intention of returning the occupied territories, and this issue is “not being discussed.” He noted that the territories that once belonged to Kyiv are now part of Russia.
“It is important for us that the tasks of the OSCE are solved. They are known and have not changed,” Patrushev said.
Putin’s henchman also added that negotiations on Ukraine should be conducted between Russia and the United States without the participation of other Western countries, noting that the role of the European Union in this matter is limited. According to Patrushev, Ukraine may cease to exist in 2025.
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The Kremlin is afraid of reality
For its part, the Ukrainian side did not leave such fantasies unanswered. The head of the Center for Political Development, Andriy Kovalenko, commented on Patrushev’s words, considering them a manifestation of fear of reality.
“Patrushev is afraid of the truth that in the next 50 years the chances of a controlled division of Russia into national entities are extremely high, and there will be more and more people interested in this,” said Andriy Kovalenko.
Despite the deep divergence in views on the future of the war and peace negotiations, key figures such as Mike Volz and Kurt Volker emphasize the importance of using sanctions and military force to put pressure on Russia. Volker emphasizes that a long-term commitment can make Putin realize that he cannot win by exhausting Ukraine and the West. In turn, Mike Volz recognizes the realities of the war, noting that the expulsion of every Russian soldier from the entire territory of Ukraine, including Crimea, is unlikely.
One of the main questions that remains open is whether Donald Trump will be able to convince Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to reach a compromise on possible negotiations and a freeze on the front. And whether he will be able to force Putin to give up his ambitions for the territory of Ukraine.
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