Should we expect a recurrence of the deadly COVID-19 pandemic in autumn: forecast of leading Ukrainian doctors
13 August 2024 16:47
ANALYSIS FROM 
Last month, almost 12,000 cases of coronavirus were recorded in Ukraine, while in June there were only 2,000 cases. This was announced during a briefing was announced by by Chief Sanitary Doctor Igor Kuzin.
This means that the incidence of COVID-19 in Ukraine has now increased 6 times. "Komersant Ukrainian" talked to immunologists and infectious disease specialists to find out why COVID-19 is gaining momentum again, whether Ukraine and the world should expect a new wave of the coronavirus pandemic, and whether the new subspecies of the COVID-19 strain “Omicron” FLiRT is different from all the others.
Is COVID gaining momentum?
Despite the silence in the information space in 2023-2024 regarding COVID-19 both in Ukraine and globally, the virus has not disappeared, says immunologist Boris Donskoy in an exclusive commentary
“Few people were interested in this, because the mortality rate of new strains is very low, and the severity of the course is insignificant. But I think that Ukrainians certainly have nothing to worry about, as we have a lot of problems without COVID-19. I would not panic too much,” he said.
At the same time, Fedir Lapiy , Chairman of the National Technical Group of Experts on Immunoprophylaxis at the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, does not rule out a new round in the COVID-19 pandemic.
“There are a lot of positive COVID-19 results now and the number is only growing. There is no conspiracy here, I would like to forget about the coronavirus, but no, it will not disappear, just like the flu, for example. And I can’t say that a new wave of the pandemic is ruled out, because none of the virologists know how the virus will evolve,” Lapiy said and stressed that the COVID-19 pandemic is not over yet.
“It’s all a fantasy that the WHO has cancelled the pandemic. This is not true. And the Cabinet of Ministers did not cancel it. Only emergency measures related to the pandemic were cancelled. But if we now cancel martial law, we will not have a war, will we? It’s the same here,” the expert said.
Is COVID a seasonal disease?
Fedir Lapiy does not rule out that COVID-19 has its own seasonality, but its future aggressiveness cannot be cancelled.
“Yes, we do not have the same number of patients and burden as in 2020, 2021 and 2022. And this is partly due to the fact that many people have already encountered previous strains of coronavirus, but given that it is difficult to predict 100% how the virus will behave: whether it will weaken or become more aggressive, no one can rule out that the virus may change so much in the direction of aggressiveness that we will have new pandemic problems,” he said.
Meanwhile, Yuriy Zhigarev, a practicing infectious disease specialist and PhD in medicine, in an exclusive commentary
“If everything continues to develop as it is now, it will be just one of the respiratory viruses, but we have more than 200 viruses that can cause respiratory infections, so I don’t see any big problems now,” Zhigarev said.
Risks and disease X
Fedir Lapiy, Head of the National Technical Group of Experts on Immunoprophylaxis at the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, stressed that we live in a world of microorganisms and, despite everything, we must prepare for the possible emergence of new pathogens.
“This is what we were talking about when we talked about the so-called disease X. This is not a specific disease. These are possible challenges that are associated with the fact that we live in the world of microorganisms. New pathogens will emerge, and we need to learn from the pandemic we have with COVID-19 so that in the future, so many people do not suffer and the economy does not suffer. Using this pandemic as an example, humanity should understand how to prepare for such challenges in the future,” the expert said.
At the same time, Yuriy Zhyharev notes that another risk is the emergence of a new genetic variant of the coronavirus.
“The only risk that may be present is if a new genetic variant of this virus emerges now, if it changes very much and our immune system is not ready for it again. But this is very unlikely, because in general, such mutants that change their properties greatly do not occur very often. Therefore, I would cautiously predict that we will have a new variant that will cause many problems,” he said.
Is FLiRT different from other coronavirus strains?
As Yuriy Zhygarev explained, it is almost impossible to clinically distinguish FLiRT from other strains.
“But clinical manifestations primarily depend on your immunity and general health. Everyone tolerates coronavirus in their own way. Genetic predisposition to viral infections is also important. As we have previously talked about certain risk groups, we continue to emphasise this,” Zhigarev said.
Consequences of COVID-19
According to Fedir Lapiy, humanity will continue to see the consequences of the coronavirus for a long time, even at the beginning of the pandemic.
“There are scientific publications saying that, for example, COVID-19 manifests itself in the form of memory impairment after two and three years, people forget words. There are scientific studies that say yes, this is a consequence of COVID-19. We can also talk about an increase in heart attacks and strokes,” explained Lapiy.
Who needs to be revaccinated against COVID-19
The Ministry of Health has updated its recommendations for vaccination against COVID-19. According to Deputy Minister of Health and Chief Sanitary Doctor Igor Kuzin, from now on, representatives of high-risk groups should be revaccinated annually with one dose.
“The main logic of the changes is to significantly simplify vaccination. A healthy person without concomitant diseases can receive only one vaccination, and there will be no need for revaccination,” he said.
One dose is required for the primary vaccination course, as well as for revaccination. Revaccination is recommended in 6-12 months, not for everyone, but for people in risk groups:
Those who are at risk are
- pregnant women
- people over 60 years of age;
- adults and children with weakened immune systems or concomitant or severe chronic diseases;
- adults and children at risk of severe illness and death due to coronavirus infection;
- representatives of the professional risk group (doctors, teachers, military).
“The need for revaccination is determined by a doctor, taking into account the recommendations approved by the Ministry of Health,” the agency said.
People who have completed the basic vaccination course in previous years and received the fourth or fifth booster vaccination last year can continue to be revaccinated free of charge.
Author – Aliona Kaplina
