Will the price of oil jump at the end of the season: an expert names risks and gives a forecast
7 August 17:33
The situation with sunflower oil prices in Ukraine is very unstable, as climate change and the war are radically transforming forecast models. Leonid Kozachenko, President of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation, spoke about the current state of affairs in the industry, possible threats and the forecast for the coming months in an exclusive commentary to "Komersant Ukrainian".
Climate change and the active phase of the war have made crop forecasting a real challenge. In the case of oil, the situation with sunflower, the main oilseed in Ukraine, plays a key role.
In 2024, sunflower plantings did not decrease, but even increased slightly. After the spring frosts, many fields where winter wheat did not survive the winter were reseeded with sunflower. This happened in many regions,” notes Leonid Kozachenko.
“Official statistics do not reflect these changes yet. According to the expert, according to preliminary estimates, the area under sunflower could have increased by about 500 thousand hectares.
But this is not officially confirmed. I know large companies that have indeed reseeded. But no one can confirm the volume of these works for sure,” he adds.
Rain and moisture: a factor that works for the harvest
In 2025, the availability of moisture was a favorable factor in the regions with the largest sunflower areas. Central and partially western Ukraine received enough rainfall in June and early July, which had a positive impact on the growing season.
Central Ukraine was a surprise as the sunflower grew much better than expected. This will affect both yields and seed quality. So, there is no reason to be afraid of a decline in harvest volumes,” says Kozachenko.
Five million tons is a very realistic result
Ukraine traditionally produces about 5 million tons of sunflower oil per year. At the same time, domestic consumption remains low: no more than 300 thousand tons.
This gives us a guarantee that even if something goes wrong, the market will not experience a significant shortage. We will not lose volumes compared to last year. And prices will remain stable,” the expert is convinced.
Global market: price cuts on the horizon
Ukraine is one of the largest exporters of sunflower oil in the world, so the global situation also affects the price of the product.
The global market is expected to increase the total production of oil of all types. We are talking about an increase of 1.5-5 million tons. This includes palm, soy, rapeseed, and sunflower oil. So world prices, on the contrary, are projected to decline,” explains Kozachenko.
“The main contribution to the growth of volumes will be made by palm oil, but the trend will also affect the pricing of other categories.
Potential risks that could change the situation
Although the basic forecasts remain cautiously optimistic, there are a number of risks that could affect the final result.
“The main thing is to complete all technological processes: threshing, drying, and storing the seeds properly. Otherwise, there may be losses,” explains the President of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation.
“The biggest threat now is not the heat, but prolonged rains that may begin in August, just before harvest.
The temperature and sun are not as harmful as the rains. If they continue during the harvesting period, it can seriously affect both quality and volume,” emphasizes Kozachenko.
Price stability is a real prospect for the Ukrainian market
Currently, the situation on the sunflower oil market looks controlled. Although no one can give a full guarantee, there is no reason to panic.
There is no need to worry. If there are no force majeure events, prices will remain at the level of last year. In the worst case scenario, they may grow by no more than 5%,” summarizes the President of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation.
“For now, the main task for farmers is to preserve the harvest, complete field work without any obstacles and wait for favorable weather in August.
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