Will eggs rise in price: how prices will be formed in 2026
7 January 12:57
PROGNOSIS
In 2026, the Ukrainian chicken egg market will remain unstable and difficult to predict. Prices will be simultaneously influenced by the seasonality of production, the purchasing power of the population, the cost of feed, energy risks and export opportunities. This was stated in an exclusive commentary to "Komersant Ukrainian" by the Executive Director of the Ukrainian Poultry Union Sergiy Karpenko.
Seasonality and oversupply
According to the expert, a pronounced seasonality will continue to be a basic feature of the egg market. Approximately half of the production is accounted for by households, which creates an oversupply in the warm season.
“The peculiarity of pricing in the egg market is a pronounced seasonality due to the significant share of households in the production structure (about 50%). Industrial eggs are usually the cheapest in spring and summer, which is due to an increase in supply from households, changes in diet and storage conditions during high temperatures,” explains Sergiy Karpenko.
At the same time, in the fall and winter, when households reduce production, prices of industrial producers increase, and this period determines the financial result of the industry for the year.
“In fact, the financial result of enterprises during the year depends on the price situation in the fall and winter,” the expert said.
Demand is weakening even during the holidays
Mr. Karpenko said that the seasonality factor has been compounded in recent years by a decline in population, a decline in purchasing power, and a critical situation with electricity supply, all of which have had a negative impact on egg consumption.
“Even one of the highest periods of egg consumption – New Year’s holidays and Easter – are no exception. These holidays have not been characterized by a clear trend of ‘rush’ demand for eggs for a long time,” the expert notes.
As a result, selling prices often fall below the cost of production, which puts financial pressure on companies.
“Yes, during these holidays, producers hope to make money on the principle of “historical memory,” but low demand and increased supply lead to lower prices before the holidays. We have been seeing this over the past few years, and this time, manufacturers’ selling prices started to decline long before the New Year holidays, and today they have dropped below the cost level,” the expert explained.
Cost is the main price driver
Sergiy Karpenko said that it has always been difficult to predict pricing in the egg market, and even more so today.
“It is currently quite difficult to predict how the cost of egg production will change, as the cost of components is constantly rising. Also, an important factor in the further formation of wholesale prices of producers is the demand of end consumers, which can also change quite dynamically,” the expert explained.
The key pricing factor in 2026 will be the cost of production, where the largest share is occupied by feed, the prices of which depend on grains and oilseeds.
“In addition, the cost of electricity, feed additives, veterinary drugs, equipment and spare parts, breeding products, packaging materials, additional costs for alternative energy sources, logistics costs, etc. have a significant impact on production costs,” emphasizes Sergiy Karpenko.
Due to the constant growth of costs, it is extremely difficult to accurately predict price dynamics, even in the medium term.
What will 2026 look like?
According to the industry, 2026 will not be fundamentally different from the previous year. The market will remain competitive, with a constant struggle for consumers.
“Overproduction and the struggle for the consumer will be the key factors that will affect pricing. Exports will play a decisive role in balancing the domestic market,” emphasizes the EBA Executive Director.
According to poultry producers, in 2026:
- egg production may increase by 5-6%,
- exports – by 8-10% compared to the previous year.
It is the foreign markets that can partially relieve the pressure of oversupply within the country and restrain further price drops.
In 2026, the Ukrainian egg market will remain sensitive to seasonal fluctuations, production costs, and export conditions. For consumers, this means cheaper eggs in summer and potentially higher prices in winter, while for producers it means the need to balance costs, demand and external sales.
