Can the war really end by the end of the year: analysis of insights and statements about peace
23 October 2025 15:01
ANALYSIS FROM 
After Donald Trump met with Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House, the two leaders talked about the possibility of ending the Russian-Ukrainian war in the near future. Similar statements have been made by Ukrainian MPs for several weeks, BBC News reports.
Since the beginning of the fall, a number of Ukrainian politicians – both from the government and the opposition – have begun to make predictions that active hostilities could end in the coming months, in particular by the end of November or Christmas.
“We are close to the potential end of the war. I am telling you this with confidence. This is not a guarantee that it will definitely end, but President Trump has achieved significant results in the Middle East, and now he intends to put an end to Russia’s war against Ukraine,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy summed up in a conversation with journalists after his visit to Washington.
Two possible scenarios for the end of hostilities
In an exclusive commentary for "Komersant Ukrainian", military expert, retired colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Roman Svitan categorically outlined two realistic scenarios for the end of the war.
“The fact is that the end of the war is possible, perhaps, in two cases. Either the collapse of the Russian Empire – only then can the war end with our victory, or the surrender of Ukraine,” Svitan said.
The expert explained that nowadays only our surrender would be a real quick way to end the hostilities, because the collapse of Russia, according to his estimation, will take years and large-scale blows to the economy and military potential.
“Now, perhaps, only Ukraine’s surrender is the only way to end the war. It will take at least three years to destroy Russia through blows to its economy and infrastructure,” he said.
Svitan also emphasized that agreeing to a ceasefire while maintaining Russian control over part of Ukrainian territory would mean a de facto surrender.
“The Russian army is now on about 20% of our territory – more than 100 thousand square kilometers. If we stop the fighting, it would mean surrender,” said the colonel.
According to Svitan, it all comes down to time: if the war is ended quickly, it will mean Ukraine’s surrender; if the process takes several years, there is a chance for Russia’s collapse and the restoration of Ukrainian sovereignty.
“If it’s quick, it’s just surrender. And if it takes 3-4 years, it means the collapse of the Russian Empire. Some European leaders say that Ukraine still has to fight for about three years. Ukraine is preparing to fight for these three years,” the military expert emphasized.
What Western media and Ukrainian intelligence say
According to the sources of the American publication Politico, Zelensky allegedly believes that the current offensive by Russian troops in eastern Ukraine could be the last one in this war. At least that is the opinion he expressed during a closed meeting with his fellow party members in mid-September.
Commenting on the likelihood of the fighting ending by the end of the year, military intelligence chief Kirill Budanov expressed cautious optimism, saying he “hopes for the best.” He emphasized that both sides of the war are constantly adapting to each other and adjusting their tactics.
Opposing positions of the United States and Russia
In a conversation with KU journalists, political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko commented on the intensification of international talks about the possible end of the war in Ukraine. In his opinion, despite US President Donald Trump’s involvement in diplomatic processes, this does not mean that the end of the fighting is near.
“Trump is actively engaged in this, this is a chance. But this does not mean that the war will end today or tomorrow,” noted Fesenko.
Fesenko emphasized that the key players – Washington and Moscow – continue to hold opposing positions, which complicates any negotiation prospects.
“It is very obvious that the positions of the United States and Russia on this issue remain directly opposite,” he explained.
According to the political scientist, there are no signs that the Kremlin is ready to end the hostilities. On the contrary, some recent developments indicate that the confrontational line will continue.
“Putin is not ready today, and the Kremlin in general is not ready to end the war. Unfortunately, it’s too early to say that the war is already over,” noted Fesenko.
In contrast to the cautious position of the head of the GUR and the cautious assessment of political experts, Ukrainian MPs are much more confident in their predictions about the end of the war.
Parliamentary hopes
It is worth noting that Ukrainian politicians began to speculate about the possible end of the full-scale war almost immediately after it began in February 2022. However, the wave of such predictions intensified in late 2024 and early 2025. One of the factors was Donald Trump’s return to power in the United States, as he has repeatedly stated his intention to quickly end the war between Russia and Ukraine. However, the deadlines he announced have long since passed and have not had a significant impact on the course of hostilities.
Back in February, Petro Poroshenko, the fifth president of Ukraine and the current leader of the European Solidarity opposition party, said that elections in Ukraine should be held on October 26, 2025. Since elections are not possible during martial law, he said, the fighting should have ended by that date.
Poroshenko claimed that he received this information from “sources in law enforcement, the Ministry of National Unity, the Central Election Commission, as well as the Ukraine printing plant, where they are already allegedly calculating the number of ballots.”
“So I think the elections will be held at the end of the year. What is the reason for this? According to the Constitution, parliamentary elections are to be held at the end of the year, although they should have been held two years ago. Local elections are also scheduled for the end of October,” he said in an interview with Censor.Net.
Obviously, this prediction, like many previous ones, looks unrealistic at the moment.
In early October, Yulia Tymoshenko, leader of the Batkivshchyna party and one of Ukraine’s most experienced politicians, expressed confidence that the end of the war was near.
“Having certain information, I sincerely believe that the end of this war is not far off. We all hope for this and are actively working on it,” she said in an interview with Ukrainian Radio.
Oleksiy Honcharenko, a representative of the European Solidarity party, expressed a similar opinion. According to him, according to the insider information he has, the war may end in the near future.
“Perhaps we are now witnessing the emergence of a real window of opportunity to end the hostilities,” the MP believes.
Goncharenko also cited examples that, in his opinion, indicate a change in the situation. In particular, he drew attention to the fact that the Russian president himself initiated Putin’s phone call with Trump on October 16. Probably, the Kremlin was concerned about the possibility of Ukraine receiving American long-range Tomahawk missiles and Typhon launchers.
In addition, the MP noted that India has allegedly reduced its purchases of Russian oil by 50% due to pressure from the United States, which negatively affects Russia’s energy revenues (although, as the editorial clarifies, Indian sources denied this in a comment to Reuters). According to Goncharenko, Russia is now in a difficult position.
So despite the optimistic statements of Ukrainian politicians and the intensification of diplomatic contacts, including Donald Trump’s involvement in attempts to reach a peaceful settlement, the real prospects for a quick end to the war remain uncertain. Military experts emphasize that the cessation of hostilities is possible only under two radically opposite scenarios: Ukraine’s surrender or Russia’s collapse, the latter of which will take a long time. Assessments by Ukrainian intelligence and Western analysts also show no signs of the Kremlin’s readiness for peace. Thus, although political statements about the imminent end of the war support public expectations and demonstrate a desire for peace, the current military and political realities point to the continuation of the struggle rather than its imminent end.
