Will the dollar fall before Easter? What to expect from the exchange rate next week
4 April 08:39
The beginning of April on the foreign exchange market will be marked by an adjustment to new economic realities. Despite price shocks in the fuel market and increased demand for foreign currency, the situation will remain predictable thanks to the actions of the National Bank.
Taras Lesovyi, director of the financial markets and investment department at Globus Bank, told RBC-Ukraine what to expect from exchange rates next week, reports "Komersant Ukrainian".
What influences the exchange rate
As Lesovyi notes, the main trigger for the market was the situation in the Middle East, which caused a spike in oil prices. In Ukraine, this resulted in a sharp rise in the price of A-95 gasoline (by 30%) and diesel (by 50%).
This created additional pressure: energy traders needed more foreign currency for purchases, while businesses and the public began buying up dollars to preserve their funds.
To maintain balance, the National Bank had to significantly increase the volume of interventions—from the usual $600–800 million to $1–1.3 billion per week. The market is now gradually adapting to these changes.
Another important factor is the approaching Easter holiday. Traditionally, Ukrainians sell part of their dollar savings before the holidays to cover expenses. However, the expert emphasizes that this effect will be short-lived.
“We can only speak of a partial, several-day market stabilization or even a temporary surplus of supply. Exchange offices will likely take advantage of this and set the buying rate 0.4–0.5 UAH below the interbank rate. As a result, the dollar buying rate on the cash market may temporarily drop to 43.5–43.75 UAH. But this should not be seen as a sign of a new trend,” Lesovyi noted.
Forecast for the week: April 6–12
Acceptable ranges (corridors):
- Interbank: 43.7–44.25 UAH/dollar and 49.5–52 UAH/euro.
- Cash market: 43.5–44.5 UAH/dollar and 50.5–52 UAH/euro.
Spread:
- At banks: up to 0.5–0.6 UAH per dollar and up to 0.8–1 UAH per euro.
- At currency exchange offices: up to 0.6–1 UAH per dollar and up to 1–1.3 UAH per euro.
Expected deviations: Average weekly fluctuations will not exceed 1–1.5% of the initial exchange rate.
