Will the power system withstand Russia’s increased attacks: Ukrainians are being prepared for new blackouts
9 September 15:00
ANALYSIS
On the night of September 7-8, Russia carried out one of the largest air attacks since the beginning of the full-scale war, firing 142 attack drones at Ukrainian cities and facilities. Ukrainian air defense shot down most of them, but dozens of hits were recorded in different regions. The most alarming information was about the possible damage to the Trypillia thermal power plant in Kyiv region. Despite the absence of official confirmation, the attack has once again raised the issue of energy security in the run-up to the fall and winter. Was the key power plant in the Kyiv region really damaged? Is Ukraine’s power system ready for new attacks? Is a complete blackout possible in the fall and winter? "Komersant Ukrainian" sought answers to these questions.
During the latest Russian attack on Ukraine, 26 hits were recorded in seven settlements. The media reported that the Trypillia thermal power plant in Obukhiv district was hit hard. Telegram channels also reported large-scale power outages in the capital and surrounding areas.
The State Emergency Service reported a fire at an industrial enterprise in Kyiv region as a result of the strikes, without specifying details. Later, the Energy Ministry confirmed that on the night of September 8, Russia launched another attack on the Ukrainian energy system. One of the thermal generation facilities in Kyiv region came under massive fire. There has been no official information on the damage to the Tripillya TPP.
The Ministry of Energy emphasized that the purpose of such strikes is to cause additional hardship to the civilian population and disrupt the operation of critical infrastructure.
“Generation facilities, electricity transmission and distribution systems, and gas infrastructure are not military targets. The enemy clearly understands that it is hitting critical civilian infrastructure,”
– the Ministry of Energy said.
Rescuers and power engineers are currently working to eliminate the consequences of the attack. The ministry assures that it is doing everything possible to stabilize the situation as soon as possible.
The ministry also urged Ukrainians to follow official announcements regarding possible changes in power supply schedules.
As a reminder, on the night of April 11, 2024, Russian troops launched a massive attack on the Ukrainian power grid. The Tripillya thermal power plant in Kyiv region, a key supplier of electricity to Kyiv, Cherkasy and Zhytomyr regions, came under fire.
The Russian Armed Forces then used X-69 missiles and drones, which resulted in a large-scale fire in the turbine shop of the TPP. Later, PJSC Centrenergo reported the complete destruction of the plant: 100% of the generation was destroyed. In the satellite town of Ukrainka, schedules of emergency power and water outages were introduced. Local authorities urged people to close windows, charge gadgets and use electricity sparingly.
The destruction of Trypillia TPP was the biggest loss of thermal power plants in Kyiv region since the beginning of the full-scale war. Power engineers warned that other plants would have to compensate for the loss of generation, and that nuclear power would have to bear the peak load.
Last September, we wrote that the Tripillya TPP was being restored at a rapid pace in Kyiv region. After the government allocated UAH 1.5 billion for the restoration of two TPPs of the state-owned company Centrenergo – Trypilska and Zmiivska – large-scale work began. Dozens of tenders were held in the ProZorro system: emergency repair of buildings and structures, repair of two main turbines, technical inspections of transformers and hydraulic structures. However, it is not known for certain what condition the plant was in today.
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Power engineers warned: it is better to be prepared
Against the backdrop of new attacks, Yasno Energy Company CEO Serhiy Kovalenko called on Ukrainians and businesses to prepare for possible power outages in the fall.
“We hope that we won’t need all of it this fall, but it’s better to be prepared and not use anything than to be unprepared and panic,” he said,
– he emphasized.
Kovalenko recommends that people should have power banks, flashlights, charged gadgets, water and food at home, and that businesses should check their generators and consider installing uninterruptible power systems.
Will there be a complete blackout?
Dmytro Zhmaylo, Executive Director of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation, commented on the nighttime Russian attack on the Trypillia thermal power plant and the possibility of new large-scale blackouts in Ukraine.
The expert believes that the Kremlin is once again trying to disrupt the heating season, but Ukrainians are much more resilient than at the beginning of the war.
“Yes, they will definitely try to do that. But the advantage is that we have already adapted to this to a large extent,”
– emphasized Dmytro Zhmaylo.
According to him, the enemy is aiming its main attack not at nuclear power plants but at distribution transformers.
“Our main demand is met by nuclear power. The Russians do not strike at nuclear power plants because they understand what the reaction will be. But they do hit distribution transformers. This is when enough energy is produced, but it does not reach the consumer.”
Dmytro Zhmaylo
The expert urged Ukrainians to prepare for interruptions and consider alternative power sources:
“We need to buy power banks and charging stations. And not only for this period – as long as the war continues, this will always be relevant.”
Dmytro Zhmaylo
He also recalled the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense, which currently shoots down more than 85% of air targets. At the same time, he urged people not to ignore alarms and follow safety rules.
“There will be many more painful arrivals. This is our darkest night before the dawn, and we just need to hold on. But I am more than convinced that there will be no complete blackout. There will be interruptions, there will be interruptions with heat, but we will definitely not freeze and go blind without light,”
– summarized Zhmaylo.
Earlier, Volodymyr Omelchenko, Director of Energy Programs at the Razumkov Center, noted that this year’s electricity shortage is much less than in the previous year:
“Most cities in the country did not have such big problems as last year. The power shortage that existed was covered by imports.”
Volodymyr Omelchenko
Massive attacks on energy infrastructure are becoming a traditional Kremlin strategy ahead of cold weather. However, Ukraine already has the experience of three winters at war, so society and the energy sector are much more resilient than in 2022. Despite the risk of new shelling and localized blackouts, experts agree that the country will not experience a complete blackout. Ukrainians are urged to prepare for interruptions and not ignore alarms, but at the same time remain calm and trust in the work of the energy system and air defense.
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