Is the Afghan scenario a threat to Ukraine? The US puts forward unexpected conditions to the minerals agreement
10 March 11:30
ANALYSIS
Donald Trump has set a new condition for Ukraine to sign a minerals deal. The US President intends to link the minerals agreement to the requirements for a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, for its part, has declared its readiness to sign the agreement as soon as possible. However, is Washington really ready to invest billions, or is it just part of a big political game? And most importantly, will Ukraine repeat the Afghan scenario, when instead of investment, the country received chaos? All the details are in the
Trump is ready to sign an agreement on economic cooperation if Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy agrees to take concrete steps to achieve a truce and negotiate with Russia. Bloomberg writes about this, citing its own sources. According to the publication, additional conditions on the part of the United States are the key reason why the agreement on rare earth metals has not yet been signed, despite public statements by both leaders about their readiness to cooperate.
Earlier, CBS News also wrote that Trump is seeking a “bigger and better deal” on US access to Ukraine’s rare earths. According to journalists, the current draft agreement is not yet final, and some of its provisions may be revised.
Is the US really ready to invest in Ukrainian minerals?
Military expert Ivan Stupak in an exclusive commentary
“Americans will definitely not extract resources, export them and process them under Russian missiles. This is possible only in peacetime,” said Ivan Stupak.
However, the question remains whether the United States is ready to invest in the development of Ukrainian fields. As Stupak explains, only one site of rare earth metals, which includes 17 elements from the periodic table, requires an initial investment of about $350 million and at least three years to start production. And given that geological exploration of many deposits has not yet been conducted, there is no accurate data on their real value.
“Who would want to invest money in Ukraine for a long period of time? These deposits have not yet been explored and may contain reserves worth $500 billion, $5 trillion, or they may contain only clay and metal ore,” emphasized Ivan Stupak.
At the same time, he believes that fears of “transferring” Ukrainian resources to the United States are exaggerated.
“To get to these minerals, you need significant funds, experience and technology. Ukraine does not have this yet, while the US does. If we can conclude a deal that will benefit the country, why not?” concluded Stupak.
Why is the Afghanistan scenario dangerous for Ukraine?
US President Donald Trump has already had experience in concluding agreements on the extraction of rare earth metals – in 2017, a similar agreement was reached with Afghanistan. At that time, the US Geological Survey announced the discovery of significant mineral deposits in the country. An impressive figure was announced – potential production was estimated at one trillion dollars.
At a meeting in New York, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani expressed his readiness to start developing the deposits with the involvement of American companies. However, according to Vladyslav Olenchenko, co-founder of the Mykhailivskyi Club analytical platform, instead of implementing the project, the Trump administration simultaneously began secret negotiations with the Taliban. After eight rounds of discussions, the parties signed an agreement under which the United States effectively handed the country over to the Taliban.
Does this story have any parallels with a possible agreement between Ukraine and the United States? Military expert Ivan Stupak comments on the situation:
“Afghanistan is a truly vivid example of failed implementation. We signed high-profile agreements, but in the end they did not work,” says Ivan Stupak.
Against the backdrop of possible negotiations on mining in Ukraine, the issue of guarantees and real intentions remains open. Time will tell whether American companies will really invest in mining or whether the situation will follow the Afghan scenario.
Ukraine is ready for a deal with the US on mineral resources – Foreign Ministry
Despite everything, Ukraine remains ready to conclude an agreement with the United States on mineral resources and does not rule out signing the document during the upcoming meeting in Saudi Arabia. This was stated by a spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
“Ukraine has been and remains ready to sign an agreement with the United States on mineral resources. We are convinced that this is a beneficial deal for both sides, and we really want to conclude it,” said Tikhiy.
At the same time, Tykhyi refrained from disclosing details of the negotiations, emphasizing their sensitivity.
“Let’s wait for the results. We are interested in signing the agreement as soon as possible, because we consider it an important element of the Ukrainian-American strategic partnership,” he said.
The Foreign Ministry spokesperson added that the upcoming meeting is seen as one of the opportunities to finalize the agreements, but stressed that it is too early to talk about the final decision.
