CNN: Trump’s meeting with Putin could lead to 4 disappointing scenarios for Ukraine
8 August 09:42
A possible meeting between US President Donald Trump and Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin is sparking numerous discussions about the future of the war in Ukraine. In his article, CNN analyst Nick Paton Walsh examined five potential scenarios for the end of the conflict, only one of which is positive for Ukraine, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports
According to CNN, both sides have their own reasons for wanting to hold a meeting. Trump is seeking to use his charisma to broker a deal, believing that he can convince Moscow to end the war, despite Putin’s maximalist position that Russians and Ukrainians are one people and that the territories occupied by Russian troops are part of Russia.
Trump wants to use the power of his personality to seal the deal, believing that six months of Moscow’s intransigence can be overcome in a face-to-face meeting, the article says.
Putin, for his part, is trying to buy time. After rejecting an unconditional ceasefire offer from the West in May, the Russian leader has offered only brief unilateral pauses. His occupation forces are continuing their summer offensive, which may provide him with a better position for the fall talks.
5 scenarios considered by CNN:
Putin agrees to an unconditional ceasefire
This scenario is considered unlikely. Putin is unlikely to agree to a ceasefire that leaves the front line unchanged, as Russia rejected a similar proposal in May.
For now, Russian forces are making gradual gains, and Putin sees no reason to stop.
Even the threat of sanctions against China and India is unlikely to change Putin’s military strategy in the near future.
Pragmatism and postponed negotiations
Under this scenario, the parties may agree to freeze the front line for the winter period, starting in October. By October, Putin could capture the key eastern towns of Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, and Kupiansk, gaining a strong position for a winter pause.
This will give Russia the opportunity to either resume the offensive in 2026 or use diplomacy to consolidate its gains.
Putin may also question Zelenskyy’s legitimacy through the election.
Ukraine withstands the offensive thanks to Western support
The only positive scenario for Ukraine assumes that, thanks to military assistance from the United States and Europe, Ukraine will be able to contain losses at the front. The Russian offensive will slow down, and sanctions will weaken the Kremlin’s economy. This may force Putin to seek negotiations due to the military’s inability to achieve decisive success.
European countries are already developing plans to deploy a “deterrence force” in Ukraine, which could provide security and deter Russia.
This is the best option for Ukraine, where the conflict is not ending, but is not leading to a catastrophe.
A catastrophe for Ukraine and NATO
If the meeting between Trump and Putin leads to improved US-Russian relations without Ukraine’s support, it could be a disaster. Without American support, European assistance may not be enough.
Europe will do its best to help Kyiv, but without the United States, it will not be able to change the balance of power. Russian troops could start a massive advance on Ukrainian territory, which would cause a military and political crisis in Ukraine, especially because of the need for wider mobilization.
European leaders will not have the political support to directly participate in the war, and thus Ukraine risks losing its sovereignty.
“Kyiv’s security is under threat again. Putin’s troops are advancing. European states assess that it is better to fight Russia in Ukraine than later on the actual territory of the European Union. But European leaders ultimately lack the political mandate to join a war for land inside Ukraine. Putin is moving forward. NATO does not provide a single answer. This is Europe’s nightmare, but it is the end of a sovereign Ukraine,” the analyst said of one of the scenarios.
Putin’s defeat is a repetition of the Afghanistan scenario
Russia could be caught in a long, exhausting war with heavy human losses and economic problems. Sanctions and falling revenues will hit the Kremlin’s finances, and internal opposition among the elite will intensify due to the lack of diplomatic solutions to the conflict.
This is similar to the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, which ended in defeat. In this case, Putin may lose support and political power, and Russia will cease to be an effective military threat to Europe.
CNN’s analysis emphasizes that none of the scenarios guarantees an easy resolution of the war in Ukraine. Only the scenario in which Ukraine survives the next two years with the support of the West is positive for Kyiv. However, without Ukraine’s participation in any negotiations between Trump and Putin, its interests may be ignored. The key for Ukraine is to maintain international support and strengthen its own defense capabilities.
