CSIS announces losses in Russia’s war against Ukraine: 2 million by spring
28 January 02:39
The total losses in Russia’s war against Ukraine, including those killed, wounded, and missing, could reach 2 million people by spring 2026. This forecast is contained in a new study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), based on estimates by the US and UK governments, reports "Komersant Ukrainian".
Assessment of losses
According to CSIS analysts, Ukraine’s losses during the full-scale war could amount to about 600,000 military personnel killed and wounded, while Russia’s losses are estimated at approximately 1.2 million people.
Taking into account those missing in action, the total losses of both sides already amount to about 1.8 million, and at the current pace of hostilities, this figure could rise to 2 million in the coming months.
At the same time, experts emphasize that it is difficult to determine the exact figures. Moscow systematically underestimates the number of casualties, while Kyiv does not publish official figures for security reasons.
Casualties in 2025 and the involvement of foreign forces
According to the study, in 2025 alone, Russia lost about 415,000 military personnel, which is equivalent to approximately 35,000 people per month. The total number of Ukrainian military personnel killed since the start of the war is estimated to be between 100,000 and 140,000.
Analysts separately mention the participation of foreign forces: among the 15,000 North Korean troops sent to Russia’s side, several hundred may have been killed, the report says.
Russia’s territorial gains are minimal
Despite significant losses, the study notes the extremely slow advance of Russian troops. On average, the pace of the occupation forces’ advance is 15 to 70 meters per day.
Since January 2024, Russia has occupied about 1.5% of Ukraine’s territory. CSIS analysts call this result “sluggish progress,” noting that in some key operations, the pace of the offensive is even slower than during World War I.
The pace of the Russian Federation’s advance in certain areas
According to researchers’ estimates:
- Chasiv Yar — about 15 meters per day (10 km in 23 months);
- Kupyansk — 23 meters per day (9.5 km in 14 months);
- Pokrovsk — 70 meters per day (50 km in 23 months);
- Hulyaypole — 297 meters per day, which is also considered a slow advance.
Contrast with the offensive operations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
For comparison, CSIS cites examples of significantly faster operations by the Armed Forces of Ukraine:
Liberation of Kherson (November 2022) — about 590 meters per day;
Offensive in the Robotyne area (summer 2023) — an average of 90 meters per day;
Kharkiv counteroffensive (September 2022) — 7,400–7,500 meters per day, one of the fastest offensives in modern warfare;
The Kursk operation (August 2024) — about 1,250 meters per day, made possible by the element of surprise and the weak preparation of the Russian Federation’s defenses.
Analysts conclude that Russia’s massive losses are not translating into proportional territorial gains, indicating the exhaustion of the occupying forces’ offensive potential.
