The scarce labor market: how many labor migrants can actually come to Ukraine
28 October 19:41
ANALYSIS FROM 
Under certain circumstances, Ukraine will need from one to ten million labor migrants in the near future. Some responded to such statements that have recently shaken up the information space with harsh emotional comments, while others asked rhetorical questions such as “is it really possible?” Is it really possible to expect so many labor migrants in Ukraine?
The Ukrainian labor market lacks approximately 8.6-8.7 million workers. This data was recently shared by Aida Lindemeyer, Director of the International Labor Organization in Ukraine. She also explained how, in her opinion, this gap could be filled: proper working conditions and decent pay should be created to encourage Ukrainians to return to the labor market in Ukraine. Labor migrants from Pakistan or Nepal, who appeared in the millions of forecasts, are not in this recipe. But they remain outside the brackets. For now.
Labor shortage
So, Ukraine needs workers, and the need for workers is indeed measured in millions. It is also accompanied by high hopes that the vast majority of these millions of vacancies will be filled by Ukrainians returning home after the war. The only question is whether this wartime socio-economic and demographic balance will eventually be restored. Vasyl Voskoboinyk, President of the All-Ukrainian Association of International Employment Companies, draws attention to the main components of this balance, or rather imbalance. He calls the involvement of labor migrants from other countries one of the solutions to the demographic problem.
“If we go purely mathematically, we need to attract at least 300 thousand people every year to keep the population of our country at the same level. Now, to all demographic problems, we have added the problem of war. The war has pushed about 7 million Ukrainians to go abroad. Only officially, 4.2 million Ukrainians have temporary protection status and are now in Europe. “To these 4.2 million we need to add the number of people who left before the outbreak of hostilities as labor migrants and remain abroad, as well as those who have already refused temporary protection status and received some other legal grounds for staying in Europe,” explains Vasyl Voskoboynyk.
“Of course, there is hope that many Ukrainians will return home after the war. But at the same time, the expert suggests that after the end of hostilities and the opening of the borders, many Ukrainians will go to work in other countries for economic reasons. In order to implement all the postwar reconstruction projects, new workers will be needed. And these may be the hands of labor migrants from other countries. But we shouldn’t expect millions of them. There are objective explanations and reasons for this. Vasyl Voskoboinyk continues.
“A person from Bangladesh or, for example, Nepal, if they travel halfway around the world, will look for a country where they can start working and earning money quickly enough. Let’s see, our average salary is now about $500-550 per month. The average salary in Poland is about 1,500. That is, in terms of money, we are not a very attractive country, to put it mildly. Next. Our employment mechanism is bureaucratized. It takes a very limited period of time for a foreigner to find a job in Poland. Here, a person must first obtain a permit from the State Employment Service. Then apply to a consular office. After that, the person comes to Ukraine and has to apply separately to the migration service and register that he or she is working. In short, everything is much more complicated administratively and in terms of money,” states Vasyl Voskoboinyk.
“That is, as the expert emphasizes, we will be competing with all those countries that are now helping us win the war, competing for our own citizens to bring them back to Ukraine. And Ukraine will also compete with other countries for the same labor migrants. And Vasyl Voskoboynyk has great doubts that we will be able to win this fight.
My assessment is that if we reach the point where tens of thousands of foreigners come to Ukraine in the next 2-3 years after the war is over, I will consider it really very good. I have very serious doubts that even in 5 years we will have hundreds of thousands of migrants coming here every year. And talking about millions, well, it’s just impossible. That is, the need can be estimated in millions, but the actual influx of migrants can be determined by tens or hundreds of thousands,” the expert concludes.
Migrant labor reality
Until 2022, Ukraine annually issued 16-20 thousand work permits for citizens of other countries. Today, the numbers are much lower.
As reported by
Dmytro Degtyar, co-founder of HRD Club Ukraine, draws attention to some other current features of this process.
“We have a very unstable flow now, small, with volumes of 3-4 batches. As for the regions where there were orders for foreign workers, they are central and eastern. That is, these are not even the western regions of Ukraine, but the eastern ones. And in terms of positions: where we have the most shortages, we attract them. For example, warehouse jobs. These are the blue-collar jobs, because it is really expensive to import highly or medium-skilled labor. Why the eastern regions? It is explained by the need. There is a lack of local staff. There are no local people in these communities. And so, of course, they attract foreigners,” says the expert.
Where do most foreigners come from to work in Ukraine? According to the State Employment Service, since the beginning of the year, as of October 1, the largest number of work permits in Ukraine have been issued to citizens of Turkey – 1094, Uzbekistan – 726, India – 541, Azerbaijan – 402, China – 355, and Bangladesh – 319. By the way, 205 people came to work in Ukraine from Pakistan, and 146 from Nepal. That is, Bangladeshis, Pakistanis, and Nepalis, who were mentioned in the comments about the alleged millions of labor migrants, do not really come to work in Ukraine.
Dmytro Degtyar, co-founder of HRD Club Ukraine, reminds us that labor migration is not a new trend for Ukraine.
With the beginning of the full-scale invasion, this story was slightly suspended, but now it has become number one on the lips of all HR professionals again. And it has grown further into the media sphere. To say that we need a huge number of migrants here and now is an understatement. We need a labor resource in general, and first and foremost, of course, we have to use our resources,” the expert notes.
The test of labor migration
Labor migration to Ukraine is not only a need, but also a problem for Ukraine. It is a problem of readiness to host not millions, but at least tens of thousands of foreigners who are willing to work in Ukraine. Or, more precisely, the unwillingness to do so, primarily from an administrative and psychological point of view.
In this regard, Vasyl Voskoboinyk, head of the All-Ukrainian Association of International Employment Companies , mentioned the joint work with the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Studies on the State Migration Strategy of Ukraine until 2035 and research involving representatives of business, local authorities, and communities in Ukraine’s macro-regions.
We found that the lion’s share, the majority, says that Ukraine is not ready to attract labor migrants. It is not ready because the unresolved problem of internally displaced persons is a clear example for all people. We failed to provide for the 5 million Ukrainians who were forced to leave the war zone, we failed to provide them with their own housing, proper work, and proper social support,” the expert notes.
The bureaucratization of the mechanism of employment of foreign citizens in Ukraine, as mentioned by Vasyl Voskoboynyk, is just one example. Dmytro Degtyar, co-founder of HRD Club Ukraine, adds to the picture.
“For an employer, the key is the time and amount of money spent on attracting one person. This includes finding a company that deals with this issue, submitting a technical application, finding this person and bringing him or her here. This includes health insurance, visas, tickets, and so on. And it takes six to nine months to complete everything. There have been many cases when the group stayed in Moldova, for example, and could not come to us, or there were delays with documents because they were waiting for permits, for example, a check by the Security Service. And the customer spends money to make sure that this group lives there. And it happened that for some positions it cost 160-190 thousand hryvnias to hire one person,” the expert notes.
“Dmytro Degtyar would like to see this whole process more centralized and predictable.
“What we definitely need to do is to make the flow controlled and predictable, and to make sure that at every stage our SBU understands which country we are working with, where we are bringing these people from. Because employers can import many people. And we need a so-called government order, which positions are in demand and need,” emphasizes Dmytro Degtyar.
“But there is also something that cannot be solved by forming a state order or strengthening control. Ukrainian society will accept the large number of foreigners who will come to Ukraine to work, even if it is not a million, but a large enough number. How can their relations with the Ukrainian community be established? Vasyl Voskoboinyk, President of the All-Ukrainian Association of International Employment Companies, shares his opinion.
Unfortunately, this will be a problem, and in order to solve it, we need to conduct a targeted information campaign. Ukrainians need to be told simple messages. Foreigners will not take away your jobs, these jobs will disappear because companies will disappear with no one to work for them. We are part of the open world. If Ukrainians are allowed to enter Europe, helped, provided with social benefits, and employed, why should our society react negatively when someone comes to us? Involvement of migrants will be an integral part of our life in the future,” emphasizes Vasyl Voskoboynyk.
And for greater convincing and clarity, he recalls an image known to all Ukrainians.
We all perceive our Ukraine as a “cherry orchard near the house”. But if there is no one to look after the house and take care of the orchard, then the house will collapse and the orchard will wither away. And this is the image that I would like every Ukrainian to understand and feel,” the expert said.
In his opinion, if this happens, then we will definitely not be afraid of the figures of tens or hundreds of thousands of migrants who can potentially come to Ukraine to work.
Author – Serhiy Vasylovych
