There will be no diesel shortage in Ukraine: what is known about fuel reserves and prices
23 March 23:56
No diesel fuel shortage is expected in Ukraine in April, despite widespread rumors in the media. The only factor that could influence the market situation remains the price level. This was reported by the Center for Countering Disinformation ( CCD), according to "Komersant Ukrainian"
Will there be a diesel fuel shortage?
The Center for Countering Disinformation stated that information about a possible diesel shortage is unreliable and arose due to a misinterpretation of analytical materials on the fuel market.
“These reports resulted from a misinterpretation of an industry publication’s analysis, rather than a reflection of the actual situation regarding fuel supplies,” the CCD noted.
It is also clarified that market experts have already refuted the information about a possible shortage.
What fuel market experts are saying
Serhiy Kuyun, Director of the A-95 Consulting Group, also emphasized that there is no basis for talking about a shortage.
“There is no diesel fuel shortage, nor is one expected,” the expert emphasized.
According to him, reports of a potential shortage by the end of March arose due to a misinterpretation by market analysts.
The expert explained that supply volumes have been confirmed, but the main factor at the moment is price.
“The enkorr report was mistakenly interpreted as an indicator of a shortage: the volumes are confirmed, but the key issue is the price, which has not yet been determined. In other words, the fuel will be purchased, but the price is still being negotiated,” explained Serhiy Kuyun.
What is the situation with diesel fuel supplies?
According to the expert, diesel fuel supply volumes in March are in line with last year’s levels, and some stockpiles are expected to be built up for April.
Currently:
- about 40% of fuel volumes have already been contracted
- the remaining supplies have been confirmed by suppliers
- price negotiations are ongoing.
“Once again: there is no shortage, nor is one expected. Especially since there are no lines for diesel at 85 hryvnias,” Kuyun noted.
How much diesel does Ukraine import?
According to data from the A-95 Consulting Group, average daily diesel fuel supplies in the first half of March amounted to about 16,800 tons, which is 3% more than in February.
If these import rates continue, the total volume of supplies in March could reach about 522,000 tons, which is even slightly higher than the figure for the same period in 2025 (516,900 tons).
What will influence diesel prices
Experts note that the main uncertainty in the market is linked to global factors, specifically:
- fluctuations in global oil prices
- the geopolitical situation
- logistics costs
- demand in the European market.
Why Ukraine Depends on Fuel Imports
Following the destruction of part of its oil refining infrastructure due to Russian attacks, Ukraine is heavily dependent on fuel imports from European countries.
At the same time, traders note that market uncertainty is primarily linked to price fluctuations.
“Negotiations on supplies are ongoing, but there are currently no final decisions regarding volumes and costs,” market participants note.
