Dollar at 45 hryvnia: bankers’ forecasts and the role of international aid in 2026
23 December 2025 19:09
According to Sergiy Mamedov, vice president of the Association of Ukrainian Banks and chairman of the board of Globus Bank, in 2026 the dollar will fluctuate between UAH 43-45 and the euro will be between UAH 50-52, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
The growth compared to 2025 may be 2-7%, but any changes will be gradual and controlled, which reduces the risk of panic in the cash market.
The banker notes that the official exchange rate in the budget for 2026 is set at 45.7 UAH/$ and 49.4 UAH/€, while the IMF forecasts 45.4 UAH/$. In 2025, the average annual official exchange rate was 7-8% lower than the budget figures, which led to an additional exchange rate deficit of more than UAH 400 billion.
Key factors of influence
- War: The ongoing or cessation of hostilities is a fundamental factor for the stability of the economy and the currency.
- International financial assistance: Ukraine needs at least $46.5 billion in 2026 to cover its budget expenditures. The EU has already agreed on an interest-free loan of €90 billion for 2026-2027, which should ensure financial stability and recovery of the country.
- The NBU’s monetary policy: inflation is expected to decline to 9.7%, allowing the regulator to ease the key policy rate and maintain a regime of “managed flexibility” in the foreign exchange market.
The NBU’s strategy
In the first quarter of 2026, the NBU will continue to smoothly adjust supply and demand in the foreign exchange market, keeping the dollar in the range of UAH 42.6-43 amid a seasonal decline in demand and tax payments, according to Mamedov.
The banker emphasizes that the hryvnia exchange rate will be stable and will not cause a market stir only if active hostilities cease, international support is stable and economic recovery is achieved.
“It is quite possible that next year the currency market will be quite balanced. Given optimistic developments, such as the cessation of active hostilities, with sustained and comprehensive financial support for Ukraine from international partners and active economic recovery (along with the attraction of powerful international investors), exchange rate indicators will not cause excitement and concern. Not only the prospects of Ukraine, but also the real mechanisms of economic growth are of utmost importance at the moment,” summarized Sergiy Mamedov.
In 2026, Ukraine’s foreign exchange market will gradually stabilize thanks to the NBU’s control, international assistance and monetary policy. The dollar to hryvnia exchange rate is likely to remain around UAH 45, and significant fluctuations are unlikely unless there are serious economic or military shocks.
