Donbas in 60 Days: What Is Moscow Really Up to Now?
2 April 15:30
ANALYSIS FROM 
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has revealed new details about Russian pressure: Moscow has issued an ultimatum to the Ukrainian Armed Forces to withdraw from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions within two months. In the event of refusal, the Kremlin threatens to fully occupy the region and impose even harsher conditions. Why exactly two months? While grueling battles continue on the front lines, the real clock seems to be ticking in Washington’s offices. Who is actually setting the deadlines? Can the Kremlin’s deadlines be set by a U.S. campaign headquarters? Does Trump need a “victory” at the cost of Ukrainian cities? "Komersant Ukrainian" investigated.
Scenario I: A Political Bow Toward Mar-a-Lago
The first scenario is directly linked to the U.S. election campaign. According to the expert, Russia may be deliberately aligning its military plans with Donald Trump’s schedule ahead of the midterm congressional elections.
“This looks very much like an attempt to play into Trump’s hands. If, for example, we take a two-month period starting today—say, from April 1 to June 1—and imagine that Ukraine has withdrawn from the Donetsk region, this becomes a fresh event that will be etched into the minds of Americans,” explains Ivan Stupak.
In such a scenario, Trump would be able to present this as his own diplomatic victory or the result of his influence, which would significantly boost his chances in November.
Scenario II: Copying the “Trump style” and hysteria
The second scenario Stupak considers is more psychological. The Russians have become so captivated by Trump’s image—constantly issuing ultimatums—that they decided to adopt a similar strategy. However, according to the expert, this now looks less like strength and more like defeat.
“An ultimatum generally looks like the weakest possible position. It would have made sense on February 20, 2022: ‘Do this, or we’ll start a full-scale war.’ It doesn’t work that way now,” says Ivan Stupak
Stupak emphasizes that such a move by Moscow is more like a tantrum stemming from an inability to achieve results on the battlefield.
What do the military say?
Amid the Kremlin’s latest political ultimatums demanding the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Donbas, the situation on the front lines reveals a completely different reality. Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines report that the enemy is not only failing to reduce the intensity of combat operations but, on the contrary, is seeking new directions for a breakthrough.
According to a senior lieutenant in the Ukrainian Defense Forces with the call sign “Alex,” over the past month, Russian troops have shifted their focus to the Dobropillia sector.
After protracted and exhausting battles in the Rodynske and Bilytske areas, where the enemy failed to achieve strategic success, the Russian command has reoriented its efforts. The main assault operations are now concentrated in the area of the village of Hryshyne and to the north of it.
“The enemy is trying to break through to the village of Dobropillia, and through it—to the city. We are managing to hold back the enemy with mixed success. The enemy has managed to capture Hryshyne and views a frontal assault on Dobropillia as a more promising option,” notes soldier “Alex.”
Defense Forces soldier Stanislav Bunyatov, call sign “Osman,” confirms: Russian troops have run into a solid Ukrainian defense, but they haven’t stopped trying to find a weak spot.
According to him, the enemy’s key objective is to break through the sector near Hryshyne to create conditions for a flanking maneuver around Dobropillia.
“Under current conditions, any advance by the enemy is already a significant success. Despite heavy losses, their command continues to recklessly send people to their deaths,” says “Osman.”
At the same time, the soldier draws attention to a serious problem: the enemy has managed to establish fire control over part of the Pokrovsk–Pavlohrad highway and adjacent roads.
Despite the Russian side’s loud statements about “peace terms” and demands that Ukraine leave Donbas, in practice the Russian army continues its offensive operations, disregarding casualties.
