Two scenarios of the Kremlin. What is behind Russia’s refusal to negotiate: an expert explains
17 December 2024 20:30
OPINION
Russia is not considering any scenarios to “freeze” the war in Ukraine. This was stated by Russia’s permanent representative to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, according to Russian propaganda media. What does the Kremlin’s latest statement mean and what are the scenarios for Russia’s behavior in the war against Ukraine? What is Putin’s real attitude to the peace talks and is he trying to put pressure on the West? Read in the article
Russia refuses to “freeze” the war in Ukraine and manipulates the topic of a truce. “This does not suit us,” Nebenzya said, trying to accuse Kyiv of “unwillingness to move towards peace” by rejecting Hungary’s proposal to establish a so-called “Christmas ceasefire.”
Thus, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban claimed that Russia had agreed to his proposal for a “Christmas truce,” while Ukraine refused. At the same time, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine condemned such statements, calling them “immoral manipulations” on the topic of peace and Christmas. The Foreign Ministry also called on Hungary to refrain from unilateral contacts with Russia, which undermine joint international efforts to achieve a just peace.
At the same time, the situation on the international stage has escalated. It became known that Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto blocked the inclusion of Vasyl Nebenzi and Russian Orthodox Church Patriarch Kirill in the EU sanctions list.
Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak emphasized that real negotiations on sustainable peace with Russia are possible only if its resources to continue the war are depleted.
“I emphasize once again that only the strong are helped, so we must remain strong. Real negotiations on sustainable peace will begin only when the enemy has no resources to continue the war. We have an incredibly big job ahead of us,” Yermak said.
Two scenarios for Russia’s behavior in the negotiations
Russia can act according to two main scenarios to influence the West and Ukraine in peace talks. This was stated by military expert Ivan Stupak in an exclusive commentary
“The Russian Federation is bluffing, trying to raise the stakes. They say they are not ready for negotiations, but instead push the Western world to look for new proposals. Thus, Russia wants to bring the situation into a game where the West will be forced to offer them conditions, and they will be able to either consider or reject these proposals,” Ivan Stupak said
According to the expert, the Kremlin considers this approach to be potentially advantageous, as it allows them to control the initiative in the negotiation process. The second scenario is the continuation of hostilities to a “stalemate.” Russia seeks to make maximum progress on the front, even at the cost of enormous losses, Stupak said.
“So far, the Russian Federation has managed to achieve certain results on the frontlines, albeit with huge losses in equipment, people and resources. For them, the situation does not look as bad as for Ukraine,” Ivan Stupak said.
Russia is likely planning to continue its offensive until it faces a complete halt, a situation that can be characterized as a “stalemate.”
“When they realize that they have reached the limit, then maybe they will be ready to discuss peaceful conditions,” added Ivan Stupak
Thus, Ivan Stupak sees two key scenarios for Russia’s actions: pressure through a diplomatic bluff or further military advance until exhaustion.
It becomes obvious that Ukraine should prepare for a more independent strategy in war and diplomacy. Despite the possible challenges, international support, particularly from Europe, will not disappear completely, but will require Ukraine to be more flexible and actively work on new alliances and strengthen its own defense capabilities.
Author – Anastasia Fedor
