The disposition of the war
5 December 2024 17:24
Victor Shlinchak, Founder and Chairman of the Board of the Institute of World Policy
1. Most of the Ukrainian society lives by the formula “Trump will come and restore order”. Psychology is such a thing that you want to believe in a miracle. Or a magician who will “solve everything.” A part of the European establishment hopes for the same formula, believing that the war should be ended and the life that existed before February 24, 22 should be returned to. Both categories are based on faith, not on realities that are only getting worse.
2. The Russian military locomotive has reached its maximum speed, but it is already obvious that some parts have begun to fall out. So far, not the main ones. The machine is running at full speed and trying to make it to the right station in time for the “C” hour.
You can read how the Kremlin sees the situation in a recent interview with Malofeev, the “court oligarch.”
“Konstantin Malofeev, a Russian oligarch under Western sanctions, told the Financial Times that President Vladimir Putin is likely to reject a peace plan proposal from Trump’s newly appointed special envoy for the conflict, Keith Kellogg.
“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we accept it, and then we tell him to go to hell because we don’t like any of it. That’s all the negotiations,” Malofeev said in an interview at a luxury resort in Dubai. “For the negotiations to be constructive, we must talk not about the future of Ukraine, but about the future of Europe and the world.”
3. The Ukrainian side seems to want to follow its own scenario. It is even talking about possible presidential elections in May. I don’t want to delve into this topic because I am still skeptical about it – too many things have to fit together, too many obstacles for the military operations to end in February.
4. The new White House administration has not yet formed a definitive vision of stopping the war in Ukraine. Yes, it is about stopping it, not about a “plan for Ukraine’s victory.” Obviously, we have to accept that this plan to stop may look ultimatum for us, but whether it will work for Russia is another question (see point 2).
5. In two weeks, the world will be preparing for Christmas. This means that only shuttle diplomacy and lobbyists organizing Christmas parties and receptions will be working during these pre-holiday weeks. This will also mean that Trump will personally postpone all final decisions (on geopolitical priorities) until January, when the deadlines will start to burn blue.
6. The world is once again at the stage of repeating the cycle we had in December 2021. Scholz’s talks with Putin, a possible meeting between the presidents of Russia and the United States, mutual accusations, and raising the stakes. The only difference is that the war has entered a tougher phase. Whether lessons will be learned from the previous round is another question. Because the actors in the process of change (except, of course, Putin) are on one side of the table.
7. We need to learn to live and plan based on the most unfavorable scenarios, because the desirable scenarios are easier to implement. The negative ones are now obvious. These are still the years of war – 2025, 2026, 2027… In these conditions, we will have to rethink the work of the economy, public life, and state institutions. Because we will have to survive.
I have optimistic thoughts, of course, too:) But I will write about them separately.
Source: Facebook.
