Energy Minister on power outages: the situation is difficult – winter will be hard
16 May 2024 16:16
БЛІЦ
As of the morning of 16 May, a significant electricity deficit remains. All regions of Ukraine are subject to hourly blackouts. Ukrainians are urged to conserve electricity throughout the day. [Kommersant] asked Ivan Plachkov, former Minister of Energy and Chairman of the All-Ukrainian Energy Assembly , how long such blackouts could last and whether they are preparing for an increase in electricity prices.
How long can such blackouts last? If there are no other power generation facilities destroyed by the enemy, will we be able to return to 24/7 electricity?
I think the blackouts not only can, but should last for a long time. Why – because we need to restore some of the equipment of energy facilities now, because a lot of it has been damaged. I have no idea how they maintain the power system.
Secondly, we need to repair the equipment of the operating power plants in order to prepare for the autumn-winter peak, and this means shutting down power units, including those at nuclear power plants, which are very powerful – 1000 megawatts each.
Thirdly, even if, for example, a substation is a powerful high-voltage substation, there are four transformers there: 3 are damaged and 1 is left – it is necessary to repair the damaged transformers and the entire substation must be shut down. So, even to carry out the work, some of the equipment has to be taken out of service, some of the equipment that is working, because we have no safety margin. Before the war, we had a 30-40% safety margin, on the eve of the autumn-winter peak, it was 8-10%, and now it is minus 20%.
In addition, we need to strengthen our air defence to ensure the protection of our operating facilities.
Therefore, we need to prepare for rolling blackouts. They will especially increase in the summer, when there will be maximum consumption and at the same time we need to repair equipment. And winter will be difficult.
Moreover, the energy sector does not have enough money today and lacks equipment. Almost all coal-fired thermal power plants are destroyed. Zaporizhzhia is destroyed, Kakhovka is destroyed, DniproHES is not working. So the situation is difficult.
The power system is now holding up thanks mainly to electricity imports, but they are not unlimited. There are appropriate volumes that we can take… This is a technical problem. The volumes we can import.
Why is there not enough electricity for the population produced by nuclear power plants?
What do you want to do, supply the population with electricity and turn off the industry? Our industry is a weapon, first of all, it means jobs, salaries and taxes. I think the opposite is true – we need to make rolling blackouts for the population and leave as little as possible for industry. Just imagine – you don’t go to work, your company is shut down, you have no salary, no taxes, and you are sitting at home watching TV. This is unacceptable, especially in wartime.
We used rolling blackouts in the 1990s, too.
What measures is Ukraine taking now to stabilise the situation? Information is being spread on social media that Ukraine is thus preparing to raise the price to UAH 5 per kilowatt?
I have already told you about the measures. Throughout the years of independence, electricity tariffs in our country have had nothing to do with economic feasibility, expediency and cost. Electricity tariffs have always been set through the prism of electoral, rating, election, etc.
Now they do not correspond to the cost of production, they are half the cost. Even if they are raised by two times, this will significantly help the recovery, but it will not solve the problem. Today, the energy sector is facing a huge deficit of funds, with 100 billion in debts in the market. We need at least USD 1 billion today.
Therefore, whether tariffs are raised or not is a purely political issue. It has nothing to do with the economy.
And tariffs should not be raised ad hoc and after a certain period of time – this is wrong. If we raise them now, it will be at least twice as much, and it will be very painful for consumers. That is why I have a concept that I have been proposing for many years: if we raise tariffs, it will be half a percent a month, and in a year it will be 6%, and if we raise them by 1%, it will be 12% in a year, and in two years – 24%. And then the tariffs will come to economic feasibility, and then it can be regulated.
Otherwise, raising them by 2-2.5 times is again a forced action, but it is very painful.
To sum up, the electricity tariff policy has always been illogical.
Author – Irina Shevchenko
