The expert named the real reasons for the rise in price of tea and coffee in the world – it will not be cheaper
20 June 13:10
Global prices for coffee, tea and cocoa continue to rise. In mid-spring last year, the cost of a ton of cocoa crossed the psychological threshold of $10,000, and a cup of coffee in Ukraine went up by almost a quarter. Bohdan Dukhnytskyi, Doctor of Economics, leading researcher at the Institute of Agrarian Economics, told "Komersant Ukrainian" what are the reasons for the rise in prices and whether we should prepare for a new price hike.
He stated that the global cocoa, coffee, and tea market has been experiencing a steady rise in prices over the past few years. The reason is climate disasters, reduced harvests, and an imbalance between supply and demand.
“The rise in tea prices began in the summer of 2024, mainly due to excessive heat and flooding in India. This resulted in a 30% decrease in production for the country, which is the world’s second largest producer of this type of agricultural product, along with a 20% increase in prices,” the expert explains.
The situation on the cocoa market is somewhat different. The global production of cocoa beans in the 2023/24 season decreased from 5 million to 4.4 million tons, which pushed prices to a historic high.
“The next surge in the price of cocoa beans occurred in December 2024, when their price reached a maximum of 11,985 USD/t. USD/t. As of mid-June 2025, cocoa beans cost 8300-8700 USD/t. USD/t,” Dukhnytsky said.
According to him, even with the further stabilization of cocoa bean prices, the rise in price of chocolate is inevitable.
“Market experts do not see any opportunities for a full recovery of production, so even with further stabilization of cocoa bean prices, the cost of finished chocolate will rise,” he predicts.
The situation is similar in the coffee market: demand consistently exceeds supply, and farmers are cutting back on sales in anticipation of a new harvest.
“From May 2024 to May 2025, the price of coffee almost halved – from USD 2.20/lb. USD/lb. to 3.34 USD/lb. USD/lb. The 2024 harvest in Vietnam and Brazil did not meet the optimistic forecasts due to prolonged weather problems in late summer,” the economist said.
Coffee prices: what should Ukraine expect
Ukraine is completely dependent on imports of coffee, cocoa, and tea, so global price fluctuations are reflected on our shelves, the expert says.
“Specialized importing companies are constantly bearing additional risks and losses in the context of Russia’s armed aggression against Ukraine, and they are forced to include these costs in the price for the end consumer,” explains Dukhnytsky.
According to him, these products have the ability to be stored for a long time, so domestic price increases usually occur with a delay of 3-4 months after the global price increase.
“As for the cost of coffee on the Ukrainian market, according to the Espresso Index of the Opendatabot resource, a cup of this drink has risen from UAH 32.19 in June 2024 to UAH 38.73 in June 2025,” the expert adds.
Given the current forecasts of a poor harvest and reduced stocks, we should expect a gradual increase in prices in the future, especially in the coffee and chocolate segment. Therefore, it is important for businesses to adapt their procurement strategy, and for consumers to prepare for new price tags.
