The expert explained the reasons for the rise in oil prices and made an unexpected forecast
2 September 12:35
OPINION
Oil prices rose slightly on Tuesday amid the escalating situation in the Russian-Ukrainian war. According to OilPrice.com, the price of Brent crude rose by 27 cents (0.40%) to reach $68.42 per barrel as of 08:30 Kyiv time. The American West Texas Intermediate showed a more significant increase – by 90 cents or 1.41%, which amounted to $64.91 per barrel.
In recent weeks, Ukrainian drones have carried out numerous strikes on Russian oil refineries. It was reported that as a result, the operation of facilities that provide at least 17% of all oil refining in Russia was stopped. This amounts to approximately 1.1 million barrels daily.
What can we expect from the oil market in the future, "Komersant Ukrainian" asked economist Oleg Pendzin.
Slight fluctuations within a month
According to the expert, the analysis of market dynamics over the past month shows a relatively stable situation. The lowest price was $67 per barrel, while the current price of $68.80 shows an increase of only 1.80%.
“It started at $69 at the beginning of this month, then the price went down to $66, now it’s $67. In fact, these are purely market fluctuations, nothing serious,”
– says the economic expert exclusively for .
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SCO as a factor of optimism
Among the key factors affecting pricing, the economist highlighted the intensification of cooperation within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The main oil consumers – China and India – are improving their economic relations, and this affects the market.
“The main oil buyers – China and India – are concentrated in the SCO. They have begun to improve their relations, and their trade performance has improved. This definitely adds a little optimism to oil sellers,”
– pengjin explained.
No sharp jumps
The expert emphasized that the current situation is fundamentally different from periods of serious geopolitical turmoil. For example, at the beginning of the Gulf War, prices jumped to $78 per barrel. Now we are seeing stability.
“There are no serious jumps, as was the case, for example, when the war in the Persian Gulf began. Then oil immediately jumped to 78. Now 67-68 is, of course, not 64-63, but not 70 dollars per barrel either,”
– the economist summarized.
Penzin emphasized that there are “many reasons why oil is moving today,” but in general, its price remains within normal market fluctuations without dramatic changes in the short term. Therefore, we should not expect drastic changes in the oil market, at least in the current geopolitical situation.
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