Experts estimate the probability of World War III: unexpected scenarios
17 October 16:03
ANALYSIS FROM 
The escalation of the war in Ukraine, provocations on NATO’s borders, and the Kremlin’s rhetoric are prompting experts to assess the risks of global conflict. Can the current conflict escalate into a thermonuclear war, and what role does Ukraine play in this? World historians, military officers, and philosophers share their threat assessments. American and Ukrainian experts emphasize that World War III in the classical sense is unlikely, but local conflicts and political tensions remain high. Ukraine’s resistance and NATO’s strategic actions are holding back the escalation of a global war. Read more in the article
World War III – a military man’s opinion
Despite the deterioration of the international security situation, it is premature to talk about the inevitable Third World War. This opinion is expressed in an exclusive commentary by
Svitan emphasizes that the use of nuclear weapons would destroy the balance of power among the nuclear-armed states.
“No one will use nuclear weapons, because this will definitely lead to the loss of the dominant role of the main players – China and the United States. That is, there is no point in it,” said Roman Svitan
He adds that major wars have never started “just like that” – there is always a specific goal behind them. At present, there is no such goal.
According to the expert, future conflicts will be of a different nature. They will not cover the whole world, but will unfold on separate “platforms”.
“There will be several sites that have already been identified. The Ukrainian platform, the Middle East. Perhaps a Taiwanese one will open as well,” explains Svitan.
He emphasizes that new centers of conflict may appear only after it becomes clear how the war in Ukraine will end – as a key confrontation between democracies and authoritarianism.
Mr. Svitan also commented on the possible aggression of Russia or even a Russian-Chinese coalition against NATO countries. According to him, the Alliance will not wait for a direct attack, but will act proactively.
“Any aggression against NATO countries… will not remain unanswered, it will be countered by destroying the main bases of the Russian navy and Russian aviation,” Svitan said
Among the priority targets, the expert names:
- Kaliningrad – the base of the Russian Baltic Fleet,
- Sevastopol and Novorossiysk – bases of the Russian Black Sea Fleet,
- kalibr carrier ships,
- long-range air bases such as Engels and Olenya.
“So they will be the first to go under the knife. And then the destruction of long-range airfields and long-range missile bases will follow.”
The expert emphasizes that such strikes are not expected to take place in the near future. This is one of NATO’s military plans to respond to a potential threat.
Thus, according to Svitan, World War III in the classical sense is unlikely. The world is moving towards limited, localized conflicts involving major powers, but without a global clash and without nuclear weapons.
World War III – a philosopher’s opinion
The Kremlin’s rhetoric and constant provocations on NATO’s borders have reignited discussions about the possibility of a major war in Europe. However, according to experts, the Russian president does not demonstrate a clear intention to start World War III. Instead, his actions have a different, more cynical goal.
More about this in an exclusive commentary
Professor Yagodzinsky emphasizes that Russia’s recent actions – the launch of drones, flying aircraft near NATO borders, demonstrative “signals” – do not look like real pre-war preparations. Rather, it is psychological pressure.
“I have a feeling that Putin is making a kind of joke on the West… These are attempts to provoke, to show his audacity,” Serhiy Yahodzinsky said.
The analyst notes that before the invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin also denied any plans for war. Therefore, aggression cannot be completely ruled out. However, the main goal of the current steps is internal propaganda.
Yahodzinsky emphasizes that Russia is trying to create an image of a helpless West for its own audience.
“All of Russia’s attacks on Europe have only one goal – to show Russian society that the West is weak, unprepared, and will not defend Ukraine,” Yagodzinsky says
Unfortunately, the expert adds, sometimes the West does demonstrate weakness – slow reaction, lack of tough rhetoric, cases of inconsistency in NATO’s actions during exercises. The professor suggests: Putin may try to test the Alliance’s strength, for example, in the Baltic States.
“Well, why not? If you start fighting… at most, you will be driven to the borders and stopped,” Yahodzinsky said
It is the doubt in the West’s readiness to act decisively that can provoke aggression. Therefore, the key issue is not military resources, but NATO’s political will. Despite the risks of a major war, Jagodzinski believes that Ukrainians should keep a cool head and formulate their own strategy.
The war can continue both militarily and enter a diplomatic phase. And public opinion, he said, will play an increasingly important role.
World War III – the opinion of historians
The international community continues to discuss the risks of global escalation due to the war in Ukraine. Leading historians and experts express different assessments of how the conflict may affect the security of Europe and the world.
An American historian and researcher of modern Russia predicted back in 2022 that if Ukraine’s south is seized and NATO does nothing, Putin may try to invade Moldova and the Baltic states.
“If Putin is not stopped there (in Ukraine), he will go to Transnistria, where Russian troops are already concentrated, and begin to seize Moldova, whose military capabilities are fundamentally smaller. So, a clash with NATO is inevitable anyway. And it is better to enter this battle in Ukraine than to wait for the defeat of the Ukrainian army,” Felshtynsky emphasized.
The historian emphasizes that the main goal is not to save Moldova, but to prevent the war from turning into a thermonuclear World War III.
American historian Timothy Snyder emphasizes the role of the Ukrainian resistance in deterring global escalation.
“It would be bad if World War III broke out. When Ukrainians resist Russia, they make all scenarios of such a catastrophe less likely. On the scale of our world, Ukrainians are firefighters. These World War III scenarios have not materialized because Ukrainians are taking risks,” Snyder said.
According to him, the most likely scenarios of the Third World War are the escalation of the war in Europe, the Pacific region or the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
Oleksandr Alfyorov, a scholar, historian and media officer, believes that World War III is already happening in Ukraine, and the Ukrainian victory will not be similar to the end of World War II.
“There will be restoration, reparations, and contributions, but we should not expect this fact to end like the end of World War II. The UN has failed in its function of preventing global conflict. The Third World War is already happening in Ukraine,” explained Alfiorov.
He emphasizes that Ukraine is holding back a large-scale war in the region and preventing the conflict from spreading to other countries.
Thus, global experts agree that a global nuclear war is unlikely at this time, but local conflicts and tensions remain high. Ukraine plays a key role in deterring escalation, and NATO and the international community must maintain strategic stability.
