Experts reacted to Zelensky’s forecast of the end of the war

28 May 2025 19:42

Today, perhaps for the first time since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy voiced a forecast for the end of the war. "Komersant Ukrainian" found out what dates the head of state named and how political scientists assess his forecast for military experiments.

Zelensky’s statement: the war may end in the summer of 2026

“Of course, we understand the analysis of many intelligence agencies, many countries, and analysts. June 2026 – we all hope that there will be no more war. We really do. But at the same time, we understand that the Russians will feel the economic impact of the sanctions. Already from those that have been adopted. And we believe that from that moment on, starting in the summer of 2026, their economy will feel it strongly. We understand what the budget deficit will be. Maybe it will not be catastrophic for their economy, because it is mostly shadow,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy said at a meeting with journalists on May 27.

Such a forecast is “sewn” with significant sanctions pressure

political analyst Oleh Lisnyi

Commenting on the president’s statement, political analyst Oleh Lisnyi says that there are various scenarios, even those in which the war will never end. But the expert does not question the president’s words. Instead, he explains that a certain list of factors must work to end the war.

“First, this is probably one of the elements of working with partners on the prospects of the peace process as such. That is, the war can end, and I’m not talking about dates here, but about the fact that our partners will be in the same team with us and will understand what to do. If Europe assumes responsibility, then I think it includes, first of all, sanctions pressure. And if there is sanctions pressure, it will not be quick, that’s for sure.

The sanctions pressure from the United States is even more slow, but if it is also “sewn in” here, then there are rumors that the Russian economy may suffer, well, I wouldn’t say a collapse this year, but significant negative changes that could affect Putin’s ambitions to continue the war. Plus, if weapons aid is also sewn in, this is not a quick process either.

Therefore, my subjective assessment and logic is as follows: it may take us a year to establish a just peace there. But this is on the condition that everyone will work for victory, no matter how pretentious it may sound. But this is one of the scenarios. There are other scenarios in which this war may never end. Therefore, if Putin is not forced, the war will last for a long time. If there is adequate, effective coercion, then a year is not so much.”

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Zelensky’s words are a proactive statement

military expert Dmytro Snegiryov

Military expert Dmytro Snegiryov noted that the war will not end in one day. And the main emphasis of President Zelensky’s statement is“a demonstration of Russia’s unwillingness to engage in real negotiations,” the expert believes.

“This is actually a statement of the current situation on the contact line. Russia is demonstrating its unwillingness to engage in a peace process. Moreover, it has intensified hostilities along the entire length of the Russian-Ukrainian front.

Relatively speaking, if an agreement is signed in July to end the war, it will indicate a personal defeat for the Russian side, the Russian dictator, informational, political, and military. He has nothing to sell to the domestic consumer. The fourth year of the war, losses of up to one million, but no “denazification, demilitarization” has been implemented. They have not even reached the administrative borders of Luhansk and Donetsk regions,” the expert says.

He explains that the president’s statement has a clear target audience, and these are our Western partners and, in fact, the Russians as well.

“Plus, Zelensky’s statement is an element of military and political pressure on Western countries. That is, the president makes it clear that Russia is not ready for the negotiation process. That’s why these dates are mentioned, so that European countries and the United States can consider further scenarios at the moment of the same economic sanctions or other political pressure.

That is, to avoid statements that the war will end tomorrow, and that’s it, we’re stopping military-technical cooperation, and it will turn out that the war does not end tomorrow, but only maybe in a year, and the very nature of military-technical cooperation has already been terminated. So this is a proactive statement. To show the plans of the Russians, on the one hand, that is, Russia is the target audience, and on the other hand, the target audience is our strategic partners.

The main focus of this statement is Russia’s unwillingness to negotiate , not, let’s say, Ukraine’s desire to delay the negotiation process.”

As previously reported, according to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the next peace talks between Ukraine and Russia may take place in Turkey, the Vatican or Switzerland.