Exports are falling, imports are rising: can Ukraine’s economy withstand this imbalance?
8 August 2025 20:28
INFOGRAPHICS
Ukraine’s trade turnover exceeded $69 billion in seven months. The total volume of imported products amounted to $45.9 billion, while exports were only worth $23.2 billion, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports, citing the State Customs Service of Ukraine (SCSU).
The gap of $22.7 billion indicates a persistent negative balance of foreign trade, which is typical for a country operating in a war economy, limited logistics, and shifted production priorities.
As of August 1, taxed imports amounted to $34.7 billion, or 76% of the total volume of goods imported into Ukraine. Thus, the lion’s share of imports went through customs clearance procedures, resulting in a significant tax burden: an average of $0.52 per kilogram of product. Customs remained one of the main sources of budget revenues, despite the war and difficult business conditions.
Ukraine’s largest trading partners in terms of imports were:
- China, which provided supplies worth $9.9 billion;
- Poland – $4.4 billion;
- Germany – $3.7 billion.
Three key categories of goods account for 68% of the import structure:
- machinery, equipment and vehicles ($18 billion)
- chemical products ($7.3 billion);
- fuel and energy products ($5.9 billion).
These categories have become the main sources of customs revenues. The state budget paid UAH 112.7 billion for the import of machinery, equipment and transport, which is 29% of all customs revenues. Chemicals accounted for UAH 57 billion (15%), and energy – UAH 105.5 billion (27%).
As for exports, despite the military risks, Ukraine has maintained its position in foreign markets. Poland ($2.9 billion), Turkey ($1.9 billion), and Italy ($1.3 billion) remain the largest buyers of Ukrainian goods in 2025.
Ukraine exports food products ($13 billion), metals and metal products ($2.6 billion), as well as machinery, equipment and transport ($2.2 billion).
Read also: Ukraine’s trade balance in 2025: why imports exceed exports and what’s next
At the same time, the amount of budget revenues from export duties remains scanty – only UAH 159.1 million in the first seven months of 2025. This indicates that the bulk of exported products have zero or minimal customs duties, which reduces the fiscal potential of exports even if they are large in physical volume.
Ukraine’s import dependence is increasing. Critical sectors, such as defense, energy, and healthcare, receive large amounts of imported equipment and materials. But at the same time, rising imports amid relative export stabilization are putting pressure on the exchange rate and the NBU’s reserves, especially given the restrictions on donor assistance.
Financial analysts warn that if imports continue to grow without a corresponding increase in exports, Ukraine may face a deepening payment deficit, which will require additional measures from the regulator in the areas of monetary policy and trade flow management.
In the coming months, the situation at the customs will remain a key indicator of the country’s financial stability, as well as an important tool for adjusting economic policy in the context of the war and the gradual transition to recovery.
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