Russian oil exports through western ports to decline by 8% in February
29 January 2025 21:56
According to Reuters and traders, Russian crude oil exports through Western ports in February will be down 8% compared to January. However, this is due not only to the impact of new US sanctions, but also to an increase in oil refining in Russia, according to "Komersant Ukrainian".
Although Russia’s oil exports have withstood various sanctions since 2022, the latest restrictions have created some of the biggest challenges to maintaining stable supplies. Total oil exports in February from the ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiysk are expected to reach 1.6 million barrels per day, down from the January target of 1.73 million barrels.
However, exports may increase due to recent attacks by Ukrainian drones on Russian refineries. In particular, the Ryazan refinery suspended operations after last week’s attack. This means that more oil will remain crude.
Exports through the Baltic ports are still limited due to technical problems in Ust-Luga, where oil loading has been halved to a four-year low. According to the sources, oil supplies through the Druzhba pipeline and to Ust-Luga will increase in February, but will still remain below full capacity.
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The shadow fleet and the fight against it
According to Michelle Wiese Bockmann, chief analyst at Lloyd’s List Intelligence, the active shadow fleet carrying Iranian, Russian and Venezuelan oil, numbers about 669 tankers. Of this number, 250-300 tankers were usually engaged in the transportation of Russian oil.
The most recent US sanctions were related to the fight against the shadow fleet. However, the US imposed these sanctions at a time when Russia has reached record exports of oil products over the past 5 months.
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