Russian oil exports fall by the most since the full-scale invasion
9 July 2024 16:57
Russian oil exports have suffered the biggest drop since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This was reported by Bloomberg with reference to "Komersant Ukrainian"
Thus, the total volume of marine supplies of crude oil for the week to 7 July fell by about 990,000 barrels per day to 2.67 million, which is the lowest figure since the last week of January.
However, the reasons for this sharp drop in exports remain unclear. There were no interruptions in loading programmes to indicate maintenance or reports of storms affecting vessel moorings or loading. However, shipments were down from all major ports: Baltic, Black Sea and Pacific.
One possible explanation could be Russia’s improved compliance with the OPEC production target. According to Moscow, oil production fell by about 360,000 barrels per day from March to June. In addition, the reopening of refineries may have contributed to the decline in exports. Data for the first days of July show that refining reached its highest level since December, as seasonal maintenance and repairs were completed following the Ukrainian attacks.
Russia’s largest oil exporters, Rosneft and Lukoil, plan to cut their shipments from Novorossiysk by about 200,000 barrels per day this month compared to June. This is due to the reopening of their refineries in Tuapse and Norse.
Exports to Russia’s Asian customers, including shipments without a specified final destination, fell to 2.9 million bpd on average in the four weeks to 7 July, the lowest level in three and a half months. Around 900,000 barrels per day were loaded onto tankers bound for China, while shipments to India totalled around 1.75 million barrels per day.
The gross value of Russia’s oil exports fell to $1.44 billion in the week to 7 July, down from around $1.92 billion in the previous period. Despite rising prices for the main Russian crude oil grades for the fourth week in a row, the significant drop in volumes resulted in the lowest weekly gross revenue since the last week of January.
As recently as May, Russian oil revenues were on the rise and Russian exports were reaching seasonal highs.
In this situation, Russia would probably like to raise oil prices, but the anarchy in OPEC undermines this desire.
As 
wrote, the US is deliberately imposing lenient sanctions to keep petrol prices low. This is leading, among other things, to India accepting tankers with Russian oil again.
