Ukrainian grain exports in 2025: traders are in no hurry to buy
16 July 12:27
ANALYSIS
Against the backdrop of a full-scale Russian invasion and climate challenges, this year’s harvest is significantly lower. However, this does not mean that Ukraine will not export agricultural products, as it still produces a lot of them.
However, so far, Ukrainian farmers are in no hurry to actively export new crops – the volumes are still too small, prices on the domestic market are high, and traders are cautious. However, the experts "Komersant Ukrainian" spoke to predict that the situation will start to change in August.
The harvest has just started
Leonid Kozachenko, president of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation, notes that grain harvesting has only recently begun, and farmers have so far harvested just over 2 million tons. According to him, this is not enough to talk about full exports.
“It is impossible to start active exports now. There are, of course, transitional balances. But they are small,”
– explains Kozachenko.
He clarifies that prices on the domestic market remain high because the supply is still insignificant. Only after the gross harvest exceeds 5 million tons, prices may go down, making Ukrainian grain more attractive to traders.
“Currently, only those who have made a prepayment take grain from farmers and small businesses. These are so-called forward purchases,”
– says the UAC President.
He adds that the activity of traders is currently low due to the residual risks of war. Although, he says, these risks are “half of what they were before the war,” caution is still palpable.
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Major exports expected in August
Denys Marchuk, deputy chairman of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, confirms that the market has not yet entered its usual rhythm.
“The volumes are too small because there is no momentum yet. The harvesting campaign has just begun,” he explains,
– he explains.
Marchuk also adds that it is mainly those farmers who urgently need money to cover harvesting costs that are forced to sell their crops.
“Those who need to cover their bills are selling,”
– the agricultural expert clarifies.
According to experts, active exports of the new harvest will start next month, and this is a normal pace at the start of the marketing season.
Summary
Despite the difficult weather conditions and the war, Ukrainian farmers are gradually entering the phase of harvesting a new crop. There are no active exports yet, as the volumes are still small, prices are high, and traders are cautious. However, experts predict that grain exports will pick up in August. However, the scale of these exports is likely to be more modest than in the pre-war years due to the overall crop losses and shrinking markets.
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