“Endgame of the war: is Ukraine preparing for decisive negotiations with Russia?
9 October 2024 16:52
ANALYSIS
Ukrainian officials are ready to admit that the war is about to reach an “endgame”. Such assumptions were made in an article in the American Bloomberg. The publication says that this is what was supposed to be discussed at the Ramstein meeting, which is currently being postponed due to Hurricane Milton. "Komersant Ukrainian" has been trying to figure out what the “endgame” for Ukraine might look like.
Recalling a chess game with world champion Garry Kasparov, former Deputy Minister for Temporarily Occupied Territories and Internally Displaced Persons of Ukraine Georgiy Tuka assures that an “endgame” for Ukraine would be dangerous.
“The term ‘endgame’ means the end of the game, but not necessarily a loss. It can be both a loss and a win. The use of such terminology in the current situation will be in favour of Russia, which is now in a winning and stronger position. If we say that everything is coming to an end, then we have to admit that Ukraine has lost this war,”
– says Georgy Tuka in an interview with the Youtube platform “News Factory”
Is there already a scenario for the final stage of the war?
Military and political expert, head of the Centre for Military and Legal Studies Oleksandr Musienko in an exclusive interview notes that the information in the media is just guesswork and assumptions. However, it’s no secret that Ukraine wants to end the war by the end of this year.
“We are looking for ways to reach such negotiations. It’s no secret that the Russians were invited to the peace summit, but they refused to send their representatives, though the summit has been postponed. I think a lot will depend on how events develop by the end of the year. In particular, on the aid packages that will be promised to us with a view to 2025.”
Oleksandr Musienko
At the same time, it is important to know when and in what composition the Ramstein meeting will take place, and what packages we will hear there, he adds.
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The outcome of the US election will also have an impact on the course of events in Ukraine. Until then, according to the expert, there will only be a discussion of options for future negotiations, including security guarantees, NATO membership, etc.
“Ukraine wants security guarantees. This is also a fact. But Bloomberg also writes that no one knows how to achieve this. There is information, there are certain assumptions, assessments of the situation, but so far there are no conclusions about what the negotiations will be about.”
Oleksandr Musienko
Whether we are talking about the surrender of Ukrainian territories, joining NATO or withdrawing troops from Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, as Lavrov demands, we do not know yet. And while there are no specifics, Ukraine’s position remains unchanged, Musienko says. Moreover, the option for negotiations has never been closed. The only question is, on what terms?
“As for the concessions that Ukraine can make, the official position is that no one is ready to give up sovereignty. What kind of negotiations are going on behind closed doors and whether these negotiations are behind closed doors is still information from the media based on unnamed sources that cannot be verified.”
Oleksandr Musienko
Let me remind you that Ukraine insists on implementing the “peace formula” proposed by President Zelenskyy, which includes a return to the 1991 borders and the withdrawal of Russian troops from the occupied territories. He demands that Russia give up four regions of Ukraine (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhya), recognise the loss of control over these territories and Crimea, refuse to join NATO, secure Ukraine’s non-nuclear status, and lift Western sanctions against Russia. Kyiv immediately rejected the plan, calling it unacceptable.
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Author: Anastasia Fedor
