Energy system on the brink of balance: when Ukraine will be able to abandon power cut schedules
19 February 18:19
Almost four years of full-scale war have turned Ukraine’s energy system into one of the key fronts of the conflict. After massive attacks on power generation facilities and transmission networks, the country’s energy sector has been in a state of constant adaptation — from emergency repairs to urgent electricity imports from Europe.
Today, Ukraine’s energy system is balancing between capacity shortages, peak loads, and limited reserve capacity. Thermal power generation has suffered significant damage, some hydroelectric facilities have been damaged, and the risks to nuclear power plants remain high, particularly due to the occupation of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. At the same time, renewable energy is unstable, with its contribution depending on weather conditions and the security situation.
Under these conditions, hourly power outage schedules have become a tool not only for technical regulation but also for social policy. They determine the rhythm of life in cities and villages and affect the operation of businesses and critical infrastructure. Formally, this is a way to avoid emergency blackouts and maintain the integrity of the grid. In fact, it is an indicator of the depth of the deficit and the stability of the system.
When will the power outage schedules be canceled?
Despite the difficult situation, energy companies are announcing a gradual recovery. At the same time, experts warn that even under optimistic conditions, Ukrainians should prepare for periodic restrictions in both summer and winter.
MP Serhiy Nahorniak said on Kyiv 24 that we can expect the power outage schedules to be relaxed as early as March, as solar power plants have already started operating, so there will be additional electricity available in a week.
At the same time, Alexander Kharchenko, director of the Center for Energy Research, emphasized in an interview with RBC-Ukraine that the capital remains in the spotlight, but there is no need to dramatize the situation.
“But if you ask whether the situation could become more difficult in Kyiv, then yes, it could. Will it become more difficult? I don’t think so. From what I can see, we are currently on a path to recovery, and the situation is gradually stabilizing.”
According to him, the country may temporarily deviate from the schedules in the spring, but it is unrealistic to completely abandon them at this stage.
“We may deviate from the schedules in April until May and June, and then return to them in July and August.”
Summer heat and nuclear power plant repairs: a risk factor
The expert explains that summer is traditionally a period of increased load due to heat and the use of air conditioners. At the same time, a planned repair campaign for nuclear power units is underway.
“There are simply certain periods when the heat is at its peak in summer and consumption is at its highest, and at the same time there is a repair campaign for nuclear reactors, because it is impossible not to repair them. Accordingly, it is quite possible that there will definitely be restrictions in July and August.”
Thus, even with relative stabilization in the power system, July and August may again return Ukrainians to hourly schedules.
Winter may also be a difficult period, especially if temperatures drop significantly. In fact, we are talking about a new normal: schedules as a tool for balancing the system at peak times, rather than a sign of complete collapse.
In terms of the strategic outlook, the expert outlines a multi-year stabilization horizon.
“The optimistic scenario, in my opinion, is three years (2029, ed.). The realistic one is four to five (2030–2031).”
The electricity deficit has decreased: the situation is stabilizing
Energy expert Stanislav Ignatiev, in an exclusive comment for Kommersant Ukrainian, said that the situation in Ukraine’s energy system is improving. According to him, the reduction in the deficit is primarily due to the absence of the massive shelling that was observed earlier.
“We have seen a decrease in the deficit in the energy system. There are no such significant average daily strikes as last week. We have the opportunity to use 100% of imports — at the level of 2.7–3 GWh. This is especially important during morning and evening consumption peaks,” Ignatiev explained.
The expert notes that restrictions for domestic consumers vary significantly depending on the region. The situation remains most difficult in the Odesa region, where the strictest schedules are in place due to strikes on electricity distribution facilities.
In contrast, the situation in the capital is improving.
In the western regions, particularly in the Ivano-Frankivsk and Lviv regions, hourly power cuts for the population have already been canceled due to sufficient electricity supplies.
At the same time, the enemy tried to destabilize the energy system in the west of the country, where the Khmelnytskyi nuclear power plant plays a key role. Balancing is also provided by the Burshtyn thermal power plant.
Solar generation is recovering after winter
Due to snowfall in previous weeks, most solar panels were covered with snow, which significantly limited electricity production.
“Solar power plants were operating at only 1.5-2% of their installed capacity. Now this figure has risen to 6%,” Ignatiev said.
According to his forecast, solar generation could reach 20% of its installed capacity by mid-March to early April, which would significantly reduce the deficit during daylight hours.
In the spring, the restrictions will probably be the least noticeable.
“We can talk about 2–3 hours of outages in the morning and 3–4 hours in the evening when solar generation is not working,” the expert noted.
At the same time, businesses will continue to be subject to restrictions. According to Ignatiev, a decision was made in the fall to primarily restrict large businesses that have their own generation (shopping centers, enterprises with generators) in order to minimize the burden on the population.
During the summer, some of the power units at nuclear power plants traditionally undergo scheduled repairs and fuel reloading. This creates the risk of a shortage in the morning hours.
During the day, the situation will be partially offset by solar generation (up to 20-22% of the balance), and at night there may even be a surplus due to stable nuclear generation.
However, if businesses are unable to cover the deficit with their own capacities, rationing for the population may return.
3–5 year horizon: life with generators
Ignatiev agreed with his colleague Alexander Kharchenko’s assessment that Ukraine will continue to live with energy restrictions for several more years.
“We need to get used to generators for the next 3-5 years. We have about 8.6 GW of destroyed or significantly damaged capacity. They will not be restored just like that,” the expert stressed.
As an example, he cited the Darnytsia Thermal Power Plant, a station designed in 1956, whose restoration in its current form is ineffective. According to the expert, this period should be transitional: the state must create conditions for the development of modern distributed generation so that businesses invest in new high-efficiency capacities.
Why schedules change throughout the day
The expert named three key reasons for unpredictable changes in outage schedules:
- Fluctuations in consumption.
When the temperature drops, consumers use heaters and electric heating more actively, which quickly “uses up” the set limit. - Repair campaigns and emergency work.
Restoration work continues after massive attacks. Schedules may change during equipment switching or emergencies. - Weather conditions.
They affect both the volume of solar power generation and the level of consumption.
“If consumption rises sharply or generation falls, the schedules are stretched to balance the power system,” Ignatiev concluded.
So, the Ukrainian power system is entering a phase of relative stabilization, but this stability remains conditional. The decrease in the intensity of attacks, the restoration of part of the networks, and the gradual growth of solar generation create the conditions for easing the schedules as early as spring. However, this is more of a tactical relief than a strategic breakthrough.
The key problem is a structural capacity deficit. Destroyed and damaged gigawatts of generation cannot be restored quickly, and nuclear power, which carries the base load, depends on the security situation and scheduled maintenance schedules. Thermal generation has largely lost its capacity, hydropower is partially damaged, and renewable sources remain dependent on the weather. Under these conditions, hourly schedules are not a sign of collapse, but a tool for controlled balancing.
Spring may be the period of the mildest restrictions, thanks to lower consumption and an increase in the share of solar generation. However, summer carries its own risks: heat, air conditioning, and repairs at nuclear power plants could again create a shortage during peak hours. Winter will traditionally be a test of strength due to the temperature factor and potential new blows to infrastructure.
Strategically, Ukraine is transitioning to a new energy model — one that is more decentralized, with an emphasis on distributed generation, local capacity, and an active role for business. The 3–5 year period that experts are talking about is not only a time of recovery, but also a time of transformation. Whether the schedules will be a temporary phenomenon or a protracted reality depends on how quickly the state creates conditions for investment in modern generation and network modernization.
Therefore, the immediate prospect is life in a state of flexible balance: with periods of relief and new waves of restrictions. A full return to the pre-war model of uninterrupted power supply is only possible after a systematic overhaul of the industry. And it is this transition — from patching up damage to building a new energy architecture — that will be the main challenge in the coming years.
